The Braves’ trade deadline was a massive disappointment, and while the discussion around it will carry on until the end of the season, it’s time to look ahead and dissect how this team could piece together 27 outs when October baseball arrives.
The bullpen, which has been the club’s biggest strength all season, will undoubtedly play a critical role, especially when Chris Sale isn’t on the mound. But if the Braves are going to make a run, they’re going to need 2-3 guys who can give them innings to start games.
7. Spencer Schwellenbach
This list isn’t based solely on upside. If it were, Schwellenbach might own the top spot. However, there are some pretty significant concerns about him even pitching this season, and even if he does, we have no idea how he’s looking behind closed doors.
To this point, he’s thrown a handful of bullpens. Hopefully that means a rehab assignment is around the corner, because if he doesn’t get back on a mound soon, it’s going to be really difficult for the Braves to judge whether he can contribute in the postseason.
6. Bryce Elder
The next three guys are essentially interchangeable, but Elder comes in at the bottom because the PTSD from Game 3 of the 2023 NLDS still lingers. This has been his best season since that All-Star campaign a few years ago, but the underlying metrics suggest he’s been essentially the same pitcher for four straight years — the ERA results have just been wildly volatile in both directions. Things would have to go pretty poorly for Elder to get the ball in a playoff game, and if he did, Walt Weiss better have a very short leash.
5. Grant Holmes
It wouldn’t be a horrendous idea to give Grant Holmes the ball in October, but the book is out on him at this point. One time through the order, and then at the first sign of trouble, he’d need to be pulled. Opponents have a .607 OPS against Holmes the first time they see him. That number spikes to nearly 1.000 the second time. He’s much better off as a reliever in a postseason setting, but the Braves might not have much of a choice.
4. Martin Perez
Is it possible the Braves start a pitcher they designated for assignment earlier this season in Game 2 of a playoff series? If Perez keeps shoving, I don’t see why not. He’s been their second-best starter behind Chris Sale, recording a 3.24 ERA over 97.1 innings, and having a veteran who’s been there before carries some appeal. Although it’s worth noting Perez’s playoff numbers are not exactly a sight for sore eyes — a 9.24 ERA in eight appearances.
3. Tyler Mahle
The only addition the Braves made to their rotation at the deadline was Tyler Mahle, who was sporting a 5.13 ERA during his time with the Giants. However, there are a few reasons to believe he could be much better in Atlanta.
Since returning from the IL (seven starts), Mahle has a respectable 3.79 ERA and 3.62 FIP. He’s also just a year removed from a stellar season with the Rangers, one in which he recorded a 2.18 ERA over 16 starts.
Alex Anthopoulos said while making his post-deadline rounds that the Braves believe they can help Mahle make the adjustments he needs to succeed. They’ve been high on him from afar for years, and while it’s not the most exciting acquisition, these are the types of players the Braves have hit on plenty of times before. Maybe he struggles. But I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt until we see otherwise.
2. AJ Smith-Shawver
The top two on this list come with tremendous upside, and the Braves better pray they play a massive role come October. AJ Smith-Shawver has the stuff to be a frontline starter, and he flashed it in his season debut last week against the Mets. He still needs to fine-tune his control and figure out how to better set up hitters with his secondary offerings, but if it all starts to click at the right time, there’s potential for an Ian Anderson type of postseason run.
1. Didier Fuentes
Who knows if the Braves would be willing to move Didier Fuentes back into the rotation this year, but the stuff is so good he might be the guy who can save the entire season. In 37 appearances as a reliever, he owns a 1.84 ERA over 44.0 innings. It might be worth the gamble to start stretching him out slowly over the next two months to see how he handles it. At the very least, the Braves are going to need Fuentes to cover a lot of innings in October, whether that’s as a starter or a reliever. He’s already among the best arms in the organization, and he seems to be oozing with confidence.
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