I’m not sure even the most optimistic Braves fan could have predicted a 20-9 start — the best record in baseball — fueled by the league’s most explosive offense and arguably its best pitching staff.
The offense, at least, was within reason. This core is still loaded with All-Star talent that has a long track record of producing. Last season always felt more like an outlier than the beginning of a decline. But the pitching — specifically the rotation — has been downright unfathomable.
Atlanta essentially has an All-Star staff sitting on the IL:
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And yet, the Braves rank first in team ERA, with the rotation sitting third in baseball at 3.12. Is that sustainable with this group? Of course not. Bryce Elder and Martín Pérez probably aren’t headed to the All-Star Game, and there are legitimate questions surrounding Grant Holmes and Reynaldo López — the latter already shifting to the bullpen.
But the key here is what’s coming next.
Spencer Strider is already up to 82 pitches in his rehab outings, and the Braves are encouraged by both the life and shape of his fastball. There’s a real belief he can return to being a frontline arm immediately — and that return could come as soon as this week. Hurston Waldrep is also expected back at some point this season, and there’s at least an outside chance Atlanta gets contributions from Schwellenbach and Smith-Shawver as they recover from elbow surgeries.
Then there’s the next wave. JR Ritchie just gave fans a glimpse of what’s coming, tossing seven innings of two-run ball in his debut against a red-hot Nationals lineup. He’s sticking around for now, and Didier Fuentes has also flashed plenty of promise, even if his most recent outing was a bit rocky.
And the reinforcements don’t stop on the mound.
Sean Murphy could rejoin the club as soon as this week as he works back from hip surgery. Drake Baldwin has been excellent, but Murphy’s defensive presence and the added depth at catcher are huge.
Not far behind him is Ha-Seong Kim, who has just begun his rehab assignment. That’s another All-Star caliber player ready to slot back into the lineup in the near future.
Then there’s the external factor. Atlanta lost Jurickson Profar to a 162-game PED suspension right before the season — a brutal hit to the outfield, particularly in left field. But it also freed up roughly $15 million that hasn’t been reallocated, giving the Braves flexibility to address any lingering holes at the trade deadline.
Coming into the season, it felt reasonable to think the Braves just needed to survive the first month or two until reinforcements arrived — then make a push.
Instead, they’ve been the best team in baseball.
And you could make a very real argument that this is the worst the roster will look all season.
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(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)
