The biggest determinant in whether the Braves could bounce back from a disastrous 2025 season was always going to come down to one thing: their stars playing like stars again.
It really is that simple.
Alex Anthopoulos wasn’t shy about handing out early extensions to a core group of young talent. At the time, it looked like a masterstroke, but last season was a reminder of just how volatile baseball can be. The Braves generally know what they’re getting from Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson — their production rarely wavers, and they’re almost always among the best at their positions.
But Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies haven’t consistently matched those expectations since signing their long-term deals.
For the first couple of weeks, that trend held for Riley and Harris — even as the Braves continued to win games. But over the last week, both have caught fire. Riley has homered three times in his last four games after going deep zero times over the first 18. Harris, meanwhile, has gone absolutely nuclear, racking up 10 hits over his last six starts with three homers — good for a ridiculous 1.384 OPS.
If you were paying close attention early on, Harris’ breakout isn’t all that surprising. He’s been scorching the baseball from day one, posting Statcast metrics that point to one of the most impressive offensive profiles in the game — it just took a little time for the results to catch up.
Michael Harris II Advanced Analytics
- .420 xwOBA (94th percentile)
- .320 xBA (97th percentile)
- .621 xSLG (97th percentile)
- 93.6 MPH Average Exit Velocity (92nd percentile)
- 53.7% Hard Hit Rate (90th percentile)
- 6.8% Walk Rate (28th percentile)
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In a sport flooded with advanced metrics that can make your head spin, sometimes things can best be explained like this: hit the ball hard, and good things happen. And right now, very few players are squaring it up more consistently than Michael Harris II.
About the only real complaint through the first month is his walk rate, which still sits in the bottom third of the league. But even that comes with context. His 6.8% walk rate is nearly triple what he posted last season (2.5%), and he’s already drawn four walks over his last eight games. For perspective, Harris walked just 16 times all of last year — and has never posted a walk rate above 5% in his career. So even in that area, there are real signs of growth.
Of course, we’re still working with a small sample size. Harris will need to sustain this for a couple of months before anyone seriously starts throwing around MVP talk. But even if he cools off a bit, when you pair this kind of offensive production with his elite defense in center field, he’s firmly on track for his first All-Star appearance.
And after last season — when a lot of Braves fans were starting to wonder if he’d ever get back to the level he showed during his 2022 Rookie of the Year campaign — that’s a significant reason why Atlanta sits at 15-7 and five games clear of second place in the NL East.
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(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)
