Spencer Schwellenbach Braves

What are the odds of these injured Braves pitchers returning in 2026?

Earlier in the week, we got a plethora of injury updates on Braves starting pitchers — most of which were encouraging.

Spencer Strider and Hurston Waldrep, both dealing with elbow inflammation, will avoid going under the knife and begin throwing programs this week.

That’s a fantastic update — but not one that’s going to have a massive impact on this season. It’s highly unlikely either Waldrep or Strider pitches again for the Braves in 2026, but had they needed surgery, they’d have missed all of next year as well.

I’ll still leave the door open ever so slightly for Strider to make an appearance down the stretch and potentially build a case for the postseason roster, though. He’s really struggled as a starter since undergoing InternalBrace surgery back in 2024, but maybe the Braves give him a quick look for an inning to see if he could bring anything to the table as a reliever. Long-term, the club still views him as a starting pitcher — but there’s no chance of him making an impact in that role this season.

Spencer Schwellenbach is a little ahead of those two. He began his throwing program in June and has tossed a handful of bullpens. However, the chances of him returning this season grow grimmer by the day. He still hasn’t begun a rehab assignment, and the fact that he hasn’t suggests he’s not quite feeling 100%.

The door shouldn’t be closed entirely on him pitching at all this year. Like Strider, Schwellenbach could get a look in a relief role. But the chances of him stretching out and making starts are inching closer to zero with each passing day. He’d have to begin a rehab assignment within the next 10 days to receive serious consideration.

Of all the Braves’ injured arms, Reynaldo Lopez is by far the most likely to return this season. He’s dealing with knee inflammation and is already throwing bullpens. Within the next week or so, he could be activated. The bigger question is how the Braves decide to use him the rest of the way.

It feels pretty obvious he should be used out of the bullpen. Chris Sale is the clear-cut No. 1. Martin Pérez, Tyler Mahle, and Grant Holmes aren’t going to lose their spots with the way they’ve performed recently. AJ Smith-Shawver is going to get a chance to start. And that still leaves Bryce Elder.

The Braves could roll with a six-man rotation the rest of the way to keep everyone fresh, given how healthy their lead in the division is. But there’s really no place for Lopez in the rotation anymore, and he’s had success throughout his career as a reliever.

(Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

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