Last week, Alex Anthopoulos confirmed that four of the spots in the Braves’ rotation are locked down by Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Spencer Strider, and Grant Holmes.
The fifth spot was supposed to go to Spencer Schwellenbach, but because of his injury, it became an open competition featuring Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder, and veteran Martin Pérez. With Waldrep now sidelined, the race appears to be down to two unless the Braves make a late addition, and it’s fair to say Bryce Elder is the clear frontrunner entering Spring Training.
The first 40 starts of Bryce Elder’s career (2022–2023) showed signs of a pitcher who could have quite a lengthy major-league career. Although he did not feature overpowering stuff, his control was excellent, and he quickly showed an innate ability to pitch with runners on base, getting out of jams at an alarming rate.
The peripherals, however, suggested Elder’s success was a bit of fool’s gold, and while some old heads may still be fighting the analytically based approach, those underlying metrics proved to be correct. In Elder’s 38 starts since the beginning of the 2024 campaign, he owns a gaudy 5.59 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and 1.4 homers allowed per nine innings.
So why would he now be the favorite to land in the Braves’ Opening Day rotation? A lack of depth and a lack of options.
Elder ran out of options last season, meaning that if he’s not on the major-league roster, the Braves will have no choice but to designate him for assignment. There’s a chance he clears waivers, but given the value placed on affordable starting pitching across the league, there are likely to be several teams willing to take a gamble on a 26-year-old former top draft pick who already has one All-Star appearance under his belt.
Given that Atlanta’s stable of starting pitching depth has essentially already been depleted just one week into Spring Training, losing another arm with major-league experience is a chance they simply cannot afford to take.
Things could change, obviously. This isn’t an all-too-different situation from what the Braves faced a year ago with Ian Anderson, who posted a 2.25 ERA in Spring Training before he was traded to the Angels in a surprise deal just weeks before the start of the season.
In that instance, the Braves saw the writing on the wall with Anderson. He wasn’t able to miss bats, and he had no idea where the ball was going. That’s not a recipe for success at any level, and Anderson’s results with Los Angeles confirmed Atlanta’s beliefs.
A similar situation could take place with Bryce Elder if he gets shelled throughout Spring Training. He’s still going to have to earn his spot, but the odds are certainly in his favor to make the Opening Day rotation following the Braves’ latest run of injuries.
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Photo: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire
