The Braves have some difficult decisions to make with their own free agents — primarily Tyler Mahle, Mauricio Dubon, and Raisel Iglesias.
Atlanta would welcome all three back with open arms, but as is always the case, it’s going to come down to dollars and cents. Here’s what ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel projects each of them to earn in free agency.
Tyler Mahle: 3 Years, $49.5 million
Mahle is one of the most interesting free agents in the entire class because of the stark contrast in his performance after he joined the Braves at the trade deadline. Before the move, he posted a 5.13 ERA with the Giants. In Atlanta, he recorded a 1.99 ERA over nine starts, then followed it up with two more brilliant performances in the postseason.
A big reason for the turnaround was an adjustment the Braves made with him: Mahle leaned on his splitter more than he ever had in his career.
“I closely covered Mahle’s spiking splitter usage in the playoffs for the Braves, putting up the top two games of splitter usage in the playoffs (Statcast era), with Gausman taking up most of the other spots just behind him,” McDaniel writes. “This trend started after the Braves traded for him at the deadline, with his usage going from 25% before the trade to 39% afterward, then shooting up more in the postseason. Mahle also posted his highest innings total since 2021, throwing 149 innings in the regular season.”
Some teams are going to scoff at offering Mahle a multi-year deal worth $50-plus million because of the small sample size in Atlanta. The Braves could even be one of those hesitant clubs. But the good news for Mahle is he only needs one team to believe he’s worth it, and with the way he performed in October, it’s fair to assume he made himself a lot of money.
Mauricio Dubon: 2 Years, $16 million
This appears to be what most contract projections have Dubon fetching in free agency, and if that’s the number, the Braves are probably going to be more than willing to pay it.
The question, though: with the market for shortstops extraordinarily thin, could there be a team out there willing to go three-plus years? Dubon is hitting free agency at the perfect time, which could lead to a scenario where he’s playing elsewhere next season and beyond.
Raisel Iglesias: 1 Year, $14 million
After earning $16 million on a one-year deal last offseason, most projections have Iglesias settling for something similar this time around. It’s a pretty fair assumption after a season in which he posted a 2.55 ERA and 34 saves, but he’s not a dominant closer, and he’ll be 37 in 2027. This will be a difficult decision for the Braves, who have a lot of holes to fill and might already have a better closer under contract in Robert Suarez.
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Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire