A week ago, the Braves sat 9.5 games up in the NL East, giving them a 99.8% chance at making the playoffs and a 96.3% chance of winning the division, according to FanGraphs.

A week later, that lead is down to just 4.5 games. FanGraphs still has Atlanta’s postseason odds at 99%, but the division is a lot more up in the air at 80.4%. And being honest about how this club has played over the last couple of weeks, along with the schedule ahead, I’m not sure the Braves should even be considered that big a favorite.

By now, you’ve probably heard about what the next week brings. Atlanta has a pit stop in Chicago for a one-game makeup against the first-place White Sox before back-to-back series against the top two seeds in the National League. They head to Milwaukee this weekend before welcoming the Dodgers to Truist Park at the beginning of next week.

That’s not a stretch any other club is jealous of, but it’s also an opportunity. The Braves remain in the mix for a first-round bye — 2.5 games behind the Dodgers and 4.0 behind the Brewers. With a couple of series wins, they’ll be back in the conversation for the No. 1 seed. With a couple of series losses, the NL East lead could be down to a game or two with an entire month left to play.

Nothing gets easier in September, either. They have matchups with the Cubs and Rays — two of baseball’s best teams — and another series with the Astros, who will be fighting for their playoff lives.

More important than all of that, though: the Braves play the Phillies seven times in the final month. No matter what happens the rest of the way, if they don’t take care of business against their division rival, they run the risk of the NL East crown staying in Philadelphia for one more year.

It all sets up for a wild ride down the stretch, something not many people expected to be saying a week ago. But just as easily as that lead shrunk to 4.5 games, it can grow back toward double digits. Baseball is a wonky game full of highs and lows — and contrary to popular belief, the Braves have been among the best in the sport against good teams.

Atlanta is 4-2 so far against the Brewers and Dodgers. They’re 5-1 against the Phillies, and overall, they’re 32-24 against teams over .500. The Braves aren’t going to shy away from anyone, even if the last couple of weeks have cast a lot of doubt on how far this team can go.

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(Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire)