Let’s get ready for Week 5 of the college football season by looking at some valuable betting spots early in the week. After a mediocre first few weeks, Week 4 was a bounce back for me, bringing my official picks record to 23-20. Here are some spots that I think are too good to pass up for Week 5. Warning: These will be very gross and uncomfortable, but it’s all about value. Let’s dive in.

Utah State +22.5 @ Vanderbilt

Who wants to fade Vandy after dropping 70 on Georgia State? I will. For starters, Clark Lea clearly got his team focused on a revenge spot against Georgia State and wanted to score as much as possible. It helps that Georgia State is really bad this season. Vandy is a great bet as a big underdog due to their option style offense and long possessions, but that also makes them an easy fade as a big favorite. It’s important to note they travel to Tuscaloosa the following week, and you have to imagine all eyes in Nashville are focused on that game after their big upset win last year.

The 2024 season showed us Vandy can get caught looking ahead. After a surprising 2-0 start, the Dores put all focus on a road trip to Missouri but seemingly forgot about traveling to Georgia State where they lost outright as a ten-point favorite. Then, after wins against Alabama and Kentucky, Vandy got ready to welcome Texas to town after a meeting with Ball State. The Commodores opened as 27.5-point favorites vs their MAC foe, but only won by 10 against a bad Ball State team that kept it a one possession game late in the fourth quarter.

I was low on Utah State and new coach Bronco Mendenhall coming into this year, but they’ve been much better than I initially thought. Bryson Barnes looks like a competent G5 quarterback and helped the Aggies beat UTEP (who I’m high on) and dominate an Air Force team that is much improved. Utah State has a Bye week after this trip to Nashville, so there should be 100% focus on a trip to an SEC venue where they could play spoiler. I would also imagine Clark Lea wants to keep Diego Pavia healthy and untouched, given the SEC schedule coming up. Catching over three touchdowns is a key number, and I expect a pretty vanilla game plan from the Dores, which should prioritize getting the win while staying healthy. There’s always the chance we get mostly Vanderbilt backups in the second half which favors Utah State. My power ratings project this at Vanderbilt -20.5, so I’ll take the points with Utah State and try to catch Vandy looking ahead.

Illinois +7 vs USC

This is one of the better “buy low” spots on this week’s card. Illinois was flat out embarrassed in primetime as it gave up 8 yards per play to Indiana in its 63-10 loss. And with USC looking like a well oiled machine, I can only assume that Illinois won’t get much betting love from the public this Saturday.

In my eyes, there are some holes to be had in the Trojans resume so far, starting with a 73-13 win against Missouri State in what was their first game as an FBS program…yawn. They beat down on a Georgia Southern team that looks pretty subpar this year. Even their 33-17 win at Purdue is a little misleading, with the Boilermakers throwing three costly interceptions all within the USC redzone. Anyone who watched the game saw that Purdue actually moved it downfield rather easily for most of the game. USC was also 4/4 on fourth down conversions. And the offense looked great scoring 45 on Michigan State, but just a side note that the Spartans lost their best tackler to targeting and also had a key linebacker go down with a bad injury.

The real reasoning to get behind the Illini here is the spot. USC played the very last game of the day Saturday–ending around midnight on the west coast–and will now fly nearly cross country for what is a 9:00 AM body clock kickoff. Like we saw last week with UNLV going to Miami-Ohio, there’s a chance the Trojans come out a little sluggish.

Illinois is also in a prove-it spot after being embarrassed and I assume this game commands the entire team’s focus and attention. This line keeps ticking up early in the week in favor of USC, but at around a full touchdown, I think it’s gone too far. And for what it’s worth, USC did struggle last season when making cross country flights, going 0-3 with losses to Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland. While I do think Illinois was overrated being ranked as a top ten team, that doesn’t mean they are awful. In fact, they are better than the Minnesota or Maryland teams that beat USC last year in this kind of spot. I’ll bite and take Illinois here in a game I project at USC -3.5.

NIU +3 vs San Diego State

I think the wrong team may be favored here. I’m buying into the Huskies and despite their 1-2 record, I’m impressed with their resume. They covered the spread in a 20-9 loss at Maryland a few weeks ago in a game that was much closer than that score showed. NIU got stuffed on fourth down twice and also missed a field goal. Don’t look now, but Maryland is undefeated and looks competent.

NIU also hung around with Mississippi State last Saturday and was down only 14-10 at half. The score could’ve been even closer if not for NIU throwing a brutal redzone interception when a touchdown would’ve made it a 21-17 game midway through the third quarter. If Jeff Lebby didn’t keep the starters in for the whole game, then it would’ve been a 24-10 NIU loss and an easy cover of +23.5 points. Either way, the Huskies had really good moments in Starkville.  

Meanwhile, I’m not totally sold on San Diego State. The Aztecs beat an awful FCS team Stony Brook, then got trounced by Washington State, who I am really down on.

Off of a bye week, they beat Cal 34-0 in a spot where Cal looked totally flat on the road and their freshman QB threw a bunch of picks. Credit SDSU for putting them in a bad spot, but I do think that blowout was a little more of Cal’s young roster letting some early mistakes snowball. Now, the Aztecs fly to Dekalb, Illinois to play NIU in a very random scheduling spot.

Another fascinating wrinkle in this game is the clash of styles. Sean Lewis’ Aztecs want to run tempo and move quickly, while NIU will grind this game to a halt with its running game and wants to bleed the clock in typical MAC fashion. A huge factor in this game will be NIU’s nonexistent passing game against San Diego State’s abysmal secondary. Which of those weaknesses can gain the upperhand will most likely determine who has the advantage.

And for what it’s worth, in San Diego State’s only road game, they looked awful against Wazzu. Meanwhile, NIU was competitive in both recent first halves against Maryland and Miss State. I like NIU to win outright, but may also look at betting NIU in the first half.

Air Force -5.5 vs Hawaii

Laying points with a service academy can scare some people away, but the matchup and the spot favors the Falcons here. For starters, Hawaii is 4-21 playing on the mainland since the start of the 2021 season! Most of their wins come at home when they clearly have a rest/travel advantage. Now they go to elevation in Colorado Springs, and to make it worse, it’s Hawaii’s sixth consecutive week playing since beating Stanford in Week 0. I would imagine they are gassed, and it doesn’t help that they’re coming off a close emotional last second loss to Fresno State. Compare all of this to Air Force, who is playing just their fourth game after having an early bye week and was home last week. The Falcons are much more rested.

I haven’t been impressed with Hawaii this season, particularly on offense where there was plenty of hype behind young quarterback Micah Alejado in the offseason. Yet, the Rainbow Warriors have only cracked 24+ points one time through five games — a 37-20 win vs Sam Houston, who is in the running for worst defense (and worst team) in the FBS. I do worry slightly about the Air Force defense, which has given up a ton of points this season, but I’m expecting a vintage service academy performance from the offense–which is averaging 38 points per game. Look for long offensive drives with Air Force controlling time of possession and slowly wearing down on this Hawaii front seven with their running game.

FAU +14 vs Memphis

Another fade of a team sitting high and mighty after a big emotional win, but there are plenty of questions I am asking of Memphis and their resume so far. The Tigers hanging around with Arkansas last weekend wasn’t a surprise since most people expected a close game with a lot of points. And while there was plenty of good for Memphis, let’s not forget that they got outgained by nearly a full yard per play, won the turnover battle, and benefited from a late fumble when the Hogs were about to kick a game-winning field goal. Even after the fumble, they needed a fluky long third down conversion to ice the game.

Memphis opened the season with a dominant win against FCS Chattanooga–no big deal–and then beat up Georgia State on the road, who we previously mentioned is really bad. They went to Troy in Week 3 (right after Troy just played an emotional close game at Clemson) and caught a huge break as the Trojans starting QB Goose Crowder got ruled out for the game with injury after the very first drive. Troy’s offense stalled big time with the backup, and Memphis got out with a big win that comes with a large asterisk next to it. All of that to say, it’s a pretty unimpressive resume, outside of the lucky Arkansas win in a spot that favored them. Now, they find themselves traveling again for a third road game in four weeks, all while hearing the media praise them and laud them as the favorite to represent the G5 in the College Football Playoff.

FAU, however, was sitting at home on its bye week and–unlike Memphis–has not had much travel at all this season, with their last two games being Florida A&M at home, and FIU on the road. Outside of the restful bye week, expect a good effort from FAU here due in part to a 38-28 loss in their most recent game, an in-state rivalry vs. FIU, which saw the Owls finish basically -6 in turnover margin (3 interceptions, 3 turnovers-on-downs).

This air raid offense should hum with quarterback Caden Veltkamp throwing against a swiss cheese Memphis secondary that gave up 325 passing yards vs Arkansas, and 340 to Georgia State. If the FAU defense can force Memphis into some third and longs, then I’ll gladly take my chances against Memphis QB Brendan Lewis, who made some really poor and questionable throws in pressure situations last week. Give me FAU catching two touchdowns at home in what could be a tough get up spot for Memphis.

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