After several weeks of nearly dead silence, the first significant domino fell in the starting pitcher market, with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi agreeing to a three-year $63 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels.
Yusei Kikuchi to the Angels. $63M, 3 years.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 25, 2024
The Angels have been the most active club early this offseason, which is somewhat surprising, given they won just 63 games last season and have no chance of really competing anytime soon. But it’s also not totally shocking because they are the Angels, and the way they move about things rarely makes sense.
However, there are a couple of things Braves fans can take away from this signing.
First, Yusei Kikuchi is a potential free agent target off the market. A three-year, $63 million contract for a pitcher that has never once recorded a season with an ERA lower than 3.86 is a little high for my liking; however, he finished last season very strong with the Astros, has fantastic swing-and-miss stuff, and his peripherals suggest his best baseball could be in his future. That’s the kind of arm the Braves typically take a liking to, so to see the Angels, who have a lot of ties to the Braves, target him comes as no surprise.
But most notably, it gives us an idea of the starting pitching market in free agency and how much other arms are going to cost. $21 million AAV over three years for a #3 starter with a bit of upside is far from cheap. Max Fried is going to get well over double that, which could take him out of the Braves’ price range, and even a guy like Nathan Eovaldi, who Atlanta is reportedly interested in, will likely garner at least a three-year deal with an AAV around $25 million.
Acquiring starting pitchers in free agency is never cheap. Everybody, including teams that won 63 games this year, is in the market for them. If Yusei Kikuchi is fetching $63 million, the Braves better be prepared to open up their checkbooks this winter, or they might have to pivot to the trade market to find the answers to their holes in the rotation.
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Photo: John Cordes/Icon Sportswire
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