With the Braves’ decision to trade Ian Anderson to the Angels, AJ Smith-Shawver has officially won the battle for the final spot in the rotation, and his 2025 campaign could go in a multitude of different directions.
Let’s first imagine what might happen if things go wrong. AJ Smith-Shawver struggles the first few times through the rotation and is replaced by Spencer Strider around the middle of April. The Braves rotation manages to stay mostly healthy, and it begins to feel like another wasted year for a man that’s been at or near the top of Atlanta’s prospect list for three years. He’ll then enter next offseason in a very similar place as guys like Ian Anderson and Michael Soroka before him, out of options with one final chance to make an impression in Atlanta.
That’s a legitimate possibility, even if it’s not very likely. At the very least, AJ Smith-Shawver should make 10-20 starts this season, as the Braves would like to keep their rotation as fresh as possible, using six arms at times. Injuries are also inevitable to some degree, which would only give Smith-Shawver more opportunities. There’s also a chance the Braves attempt to feature him at times out of the bullpen, especially later in the season, where his high-90s heater could really give Atlanta another weapon in an area where they look weak heading into Opening Day.
However, what if everything goes right? What does Smith-Shawver’s future look like in Atlanta?
Smith-Shawver’s stuff, which was already pretty damn exciting, has seemingly taken another step forward this spring. His fastball is a few ticks higher, and the secondary stuff appears miles better than it was in the past, which he discussed earlier this spring.
“I feel like I’ve done better whenever I get behind in counts of being able to throw my offspeed and just everything for strikes,” Smith-Shawver said, via Mark Bowman of MLB.com. “I think that puts you in a way better spot, because if it’s four options, rather than having just one or two pitches in the strike zone that day, having four options really messes with the hitters. So, whatever’s working and whatever I can land that day, having more of those options is always a good thing.”
This is a 22-year-old that appears to be finally turning the corner. As far as potential, his arm is just as talented as any the Braves have in their organization, including guys like Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach.
If AJ Smith-Shawver begins the season on a tear, the Braves will not want to send him back to Gwinnett when Strider returns from the IL. A six-man rotation could be in play throughout the season, but a Smith-Shawver breakout could also take a lot of pressure off Atlanta’s bullpen, allowing them to utilize an arm like Grant Holmes or even Reynaldo Lopez in a relief role while providing spot starts from time to time.
Spring Training results should always be taken with a grain of salt, and AJ Smith-Shawver’s 3.94 ERA isn’t exactly eye-popping. However, there isn’t a world where he is not included in the Braves rotation if he performs well throughout the season. His talent far exceeds that of a guy like Grant Holmes, and I would even argue his upside is greater than Reynaldo Lopez’s, even if Lopez was outstanding for the Braves a year ago.
It’ll be a fantastic problem for Brian Snitker and Alex Anthopoulos to have, but the beginning of this season is the opportunity for AJ Smith-Shawver to prove he belongs in Atlanta’s rotation for good.
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Photo: Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire
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