What do the Phillies and Mets have to do to catch the Braves?

As much as watching the Braves turn things around has put a smile on my face, watching the Mets and Phillies trip over their own feet has been just as enjoyable. I mean, Atlanta literally hit the snooze button for 100 games, lost their best player for the season, and then decided to wake up and put a stranglehold on the NL East.

Even on an off day, the Braves found themselves winners yesterday, as both the Phillies and Mets fell for the second consecutive night. That gives Atlanta a five-game lead over Philadelphia for second and a seven-game lead over the Mets for third. That’s unbelievable considering where this division was a month ago, but should we really be surprised? After all, it is the Mets and Phillies we are talking about. Anybody that is shocked just hasn’t watched them play for about ten seasons.

With that being said, there remains plenty of baseball to be played. The Braves aren’t totally out of the woods yet, but what would it take for the Phillies or Mets to come back and win the NL East? Take a look:

If the Braves just play .500 ball the rest of the way to finish 86-76, the Phillies and Mets would have to do the following just to pull even with them:

Phillies: 23-13 (.639, 104 win pace over a full season)
Mets: 25-11 (.694, 113 win pace over a full season)

— Matt Chrietzberg (@BravesMattC) August 26, 2021

Now, that’s not impossible, but it does show just how difficult it will be for someone to catch the Braves. For starters, I don’t think Brian Snitker and company will go .500 the rest of the way. They are amid a difficult stretch, but I expect them to hold their own against the Giants and Dodgers before playing well above .500 in September. Secondly, either the Mets or Phillies will have to go on a tear. Perhaps Philadelphia is capable; they do have an extremely favorable schedule the rest of the way, but I would be shocked to see the Mets go 25-11 to end the season. For all intents and purposes, they are already out of the playoff race.

Every year, national media pundits buy into the hype of the Mets and Phillies. They are the kings of the offseason championships, and though you would think that might change after a fourth straight NL East title — this time without Ronald Acuna even playing — I wouldn’t hold my breath. Somehow, the Braves will continue to fly under the radar, even if they go on to win this division by 6+ games like I expect them to.