The Braves not adding a starter this offseason, despite losing both Max Fried and Charlie Morton in free agency, shows their confidence in two things.
They expect Spencer Strider to be back within the first month of the season and do not think it will take him very long to get acclimated. That’s not a very bold assumption, considering his immense talent, but the Braves are also putting a lot of eggs into the basket of Grant Holmes to be as productive as Morton was for the club a year ago.
Holmes is one of those stories that only exists in baseball. Drafted out of high school by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first round of the 2014 MLB Draft, he made his debut 10 years later for the Braves at 28-years-old. That’s an amazing display of resilience, but what’s perhaps even more remarkable is how effective he was immediately.
The right-hander appeared in 26 games for the Braves, primarily as a multi-inning reliever. However, as the season waned, he even earned some high-leverage opportunities and eventually started seven games, including the final game of the season in which the Braves were trying to clinch the last playoff spot in the National League.
From 10 years in the minors to Game 162 starter with the Braves’ streak of six straight postseason appearances on the line, that was the Grant Holmes experience in 2024. Now, the Braves are hoping he can build on that success in year two, and there’s a lot of stuff to like about his game long-term.
For starters, the quickest way to finding success at the major-league level is by limiting walks and missing bats. Grant Holmes was elite in both of those areas a year ago.
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- 90th percentile BB %
- 97th percentile Chase %
- 92nd percentile Whiff %
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Both Holmes’ slider and curveball generated whiffs at a rate north of 41%. That’s going to lead to a lot of success, even if he’s not going to be a guy that hums it in the high 90s with his heater. Last season, Holmes posted a 3.56 ERA and 3.20 FIP to go along with a 9.2 K/9 over 68.1 innings. There’s a chance those could look even better in 2025.
Bold Prediction
Maybe I’m a sucker for a great story, or perhaps it’s the fact that Grant Holmes looks like a carbon copy of Kenny Powers, but I’m probably higher on him than anybody entering the 2025 campaign. Not only do I think he’s a lock to make the Opening Day roster, but I predict that by the end of the season, we’ll be talking about Holmes as one of the best fifth starters in the league. He’ll be so effective that he’s going to earn the right to be featured in the postseason, whether it be as a starting pitcher or a reliever.
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Photo: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire
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