The lockout is here, and the Braves still have plenty of work to do before the start of next season. The good news, though, is that none of their many pending free agents have signed either, so everything is still right in front of them once the lockout comes to an end. With all of that being said, several things have changed since the beginning of the offseason, so I thought it would be a good idea to go back through and update my odds that each Braves free agent returns to Atlanta. I’ll be including my initial prediction as well.
Drew Smyly
Initial Prediction: 0%
Updated Odds: 10%
Smyly didn’t turn out to be worth the contract that the Braves signed him to last offseason, but he was a decent starter for the team at times and had his moments in the postseason as well. I didn’t think the Braves would have much interest in him returning, and I still don’t expect there to be a ton, but I’m a little more open to the possibility as things stand now than I was a month ago. The market for starting pitchers was outrageous during this free agency period, so I don’t expect the Braves to sign a big name. However, I do think they would like to add to their rotation, even if it is a back-end guy like Smyly.
Ehire Adrianza
Initial Prediction: 75%
Updated Odds: 50%
I still think the Braves will strongly consider bringing back Adrianza, but with Arcia, Heredia, and Manny Pina in the fold, there is likely only one bench spot remaining. That could go to Adrianza, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Braves attempted to find a little more pop off the bench.
Chris Martin
Initial Prediction: 20%
Updated Odds: 5%
With Yates and O’Day in the fold, Martin’s chances of returning, which were already low, take a significant hit. I think it is best for both sides to go their separate ways after last season.
Jesse Chavez
Initial Prediction: 75%
Updated Odds: 50%
Again, with Yates and O’Day signed, the need for another right-hander out of the bullpen is not as great. Still, I think the Braves should have interest in bringing back the 38-year-old journeyman on a one-year pact. However, he may believe it is time to go out on a high note and hang it up. He admitted last month on a podcast that he considered retirement while he was injured, so I will lower the odds to 50/50.
Joc Pederson
Initial Prediction: 15%
Updated Odds: 5%
Pederson wants to be an everyday player. That was always going to be unlikely with the Braves, and with Marcell Ozuna reinstated, it seems almost impossible. Pederson will be beloved in Atlanta forever, but it’s doubtful he is back next season.
Jorge Soler
Initial Prediction: 65%
Updates Odds: 20%
With Ozuna potentially back next season, the need for Soler drops significantly. I can’t see the Braves rostering both Ozuna and Soler because of their respective defensive deficiencies. However, I won’t totally count out a Soler reunion because there is the potential that the Braves will find a trade partner for Ozuna.
Eddie Rosario
Initial Prediction: 40%
Updated Odds: 65%
Because Rosario can play better in left field than Soler and Ozuna, he’s the one who benefits from Ozuna’s reinstatement. I think it’s now more likely he returns to the Braves than it was before.
Freddie Freeman
Initial Prediction: 90%
Updated Odds: 75%
I would be lying if I said I was as confident in Freeman returning to Atlanta as I was a month ago, but I still think the odds are heavily in the Braves favor. It’s apparent he wants to remain a Brave for life, and it doesn’t seem like negotiations are too far apart. Eventually, I think Alex Anthopoulos will offer that sixth year and a deal will get done, but the longer this plays out, the more likely Freeman ends up playing in another uniform.
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