The Jurickson Profar signing has been met with mixed reviews, with Bradford Doolittle of ESPN recently giving the Braves a C for the move.
“In 2023, Profar was one of the worst regulars in the majors, producing minus-1.3 bWAR between 111 games with the Colorado Rockies and 14 with the San Diego Padres (FanGraphs actually ranked him last among all 656 position players in WAR at minus-1.6). A free agent at the end of that season, Profar went unsigned: He eventually returned to the Padres after spring training started on a deal with a $1 million base salary.
He then went out and had the best season of his career for San Diego, hitting .280/.380/.459, starting the All-Star Game and ranking seventh in the majors in on-base percentage. While he’s had good plate discipline and above-average contact rates, Profar’s batted-ball metrics jumped to levels he had never approached before. His hard-hit rate (balls above 95 mph) had never been higher than 34% and soared to 44.4% (putting him in the 71st percentile of all hitters); his average exit velocity increased from 86.5 mph to 91.1 mph (from the ninth percentile to the 80th).”
Profar’s inconsistency over his career is concerning. Once the #1 prospect in baseball, reaching the majors as early as 19-years-old, it took him a long time to find his footing. Profar never recorded a WAR above 1.7 until his 10th season, when he recorded 3.0 for the San Diego Padres in 2022. However, he followed that up by being one of the worst players in all of baseball in 2023 with the Rockies before returning to San Diego, where he once again found success.
That kind of volatility isn’t typically indicative of a player that’s deserving of a three-year contract. However, there’s reason to believe he might just be tapping into the potential many saw in him when he was a fresh-faced prospect.
Jurickson Profar underwent some significant swing changes last offseason, and the surface level results reflect the effectiveness of those changes, but they don’t tell the entire story.
Profar’s always been a guy that could hit for a respectable average, but his power potential was never really unlocked until this past season. He hit a career-high 24 homers, and his peripherals are eye-popping.
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- .xwOBA — 92nd percentile
- xSLG — 72nd percentile
- Average Exit Velocity — 80th percentile
- Chase % — 90th percentile
- Whiff % — 90th percentile
- K % — 88th percentile
- BB % — 89th percentile
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Surface level numbers can sometimes be deceptive, but these peripherals paint a perfect picture of an elite offensive profile. Jurickson Profar didn’t strike out, wasn’t afraid to take his walks, and hit the absolute piss out of the ball.
If that’s the kind of player the Braves are getting, three years and $42 million is going to look like a bargain in a few months. But another aspect that shouldn’t be taken for granted is Profar’s versatility.
Profar came up as a shortstop, and while he’s not going to replace Orlando Arcia, he is capable of filling in all over the diamond. As Braves fans found out the hard way in 2024, that can be an invaluable attribute. If Ozzie Albies or Austin Riley were to go down, Profar could fill in on the infield while allowing Jarred Kelenic to replace him in left field.
It’s a lot like killing two birds with one stone. The Braves needed a starting outfielder. They also needed a high quality super utility piece in case of injury. Jurickson Profar can do both. For $42 million over three years, there are a lot of signs this could turn out to be another very good signing by Alex Anthopoulos.
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Photo: Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire
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