The Braves have several holes that need to be filled, but the starting rotation is seemingly being prioritized from all of the reports and rumors.
Though Atlanta’s outfield needs attention, finding reasonably priced and productive outfielders is going to be exponentially easier to do than starting pitching, just look at some of the free agents who have already signed deals.
Blake Snell is the biggest fish to come off the market, signing a five-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers, but he’s a two-time Cy Young winner. Though a bit higher than expected, it’s nowhere close to as shocking as some others.
Frankie Montas is coming off a campaign in which he posted a 4.84 ERA and signed a two-year, $34 million deal with the Mets. Matthew Boyd owns a 4.85 ERA over a decade in the MLB and hasn’t made more than 12 starts since 2019 but garnered a two-year, $29 million contract from the Cubs.
Somehow, those don’t even come close to Luis Severino’s free agent contract. The Oakland Athletics haven’t had issues developing talent, but they refuse to pay them. So, who do they decide to make the highest-paid free agent in franchise history? A guy who compiled a 3.91 ERA last year, giving Severino a three-year deal worth $67 million. It’s rightfully stunned baseball fans, but it’s jarring to decision-makers around the league too.
“The market for pitching is insane right now,” an NL executive said to Mark Feinsand. “It’s through the roof. There are two tier-one guys, and more than two teams [are] looking for a guy like that. The prices just keep going up.”
Given the dynamics of the market, which has more demand than supply, the expectation is that clubs will have to get creative, take greater risks, and be desperate overall.
“I think it’s more about the high cost of starting pitching,” an NL executive said. “Teams are more willing to take chances in spaces they haven’t previously because of the cost for starters. The hit rate will naturally be lower, but the potential payoff makes it worth it.”
Another exec said teams “are looking at any way they can maximize the value of a player,” adding, “You have to be open to just about anything.”
“I think teams will look for relative low-risk gambles to do that if there are indicators that suggest a possibility,” an AL executive said. “With how starters are being deployed it’s more probable than in the past.”
Fortunately, this has been where Alex Anthopoulos thrives. Just think back to last offseason. The Braves traded Vaughn Grissom for Chris Sale, who everyone assumed would never reach the level of dominance he did when he finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting. The club also signed a high-leverage reliever in Reynaldo Lopez, who the Braves managed to turn into an All-Star starting pitcher.
Asking a GM to successfully make just one of those deals in an offseason is a tall one, but for both of those gambles to work perfectly in the same calendar year is nothing short of a miracle. It just goes to show how damn good Alex Anthopoulos is at his job.
The state of the pitching market demands similar action from the Braves GM.
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David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire
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