The Braves have several difficult decisions to make regarding their Opening Day roster over the next week, one of which includes the backend of the rotation. Most have penciled in Ian Anderson as the team’s fifth starter to begin the season. Not because he’s looked stellar this spring, but because he’s out of options, and the Braves can’t send him to Gwinnett to work on his repertoire, which is what he really needs.
That could leave AJ Smith-Shawver as the odd man out, but there are a couple of scenarios where Alex Anthopoulos is thinking differently.
Contrary to what some of Braves Country might believe, the Braves aren’t a dumb organization. They are able to see through the fool’s gold of Ian Anderson’s performance this spring. It hasn’t been good, despite a more than respectable 2.65 ERA over 17.0 innings.
The Braves are an organization that places a ton of emphasis on K/BB rate. The best pitchers in the game — whether they are starters or relievers — can miss bats and don’t give up free passes. Right now, Ian Anderson is performing about as poorly in those areas as possible. He is giving up 9.5 walks per nine innings and striking out just 4.2. That’s a recipe for disaster at the major-league level.
Comparatively, despite having a much higher ERA this spring, AJ Smith-Shawver is striking out a remarkable 13.5 batters per nine innings and walking just 2.3. His stuff also looks light years better than he has in the past, sitting in the high-90s with his heater and pairing it with some much-improved secondary offerings. There is simply no aspect where Anderson has looked like the better pitcher this spring, and it’s possible the Braves believe he is so far away from being a contributor that they cut the cord before he even throws a pitch for them in the regular season.
But even if the Braves aren’t ready to give up on Ian Anderson just yet, there’s a chance both he and AJ Smith-Shawver make the Opening Day roster. Atlanta opens the season with seven games in seven days against two of the better offenses in the Padres and Dodgers. They could opt to use a six-man rotation to begin the year, with Ian Anderson available in case a game gets out of hand early. This would allow the Braves to get a better look at Anderson against a major-league lineup in a low-leverage situation and see if it is even worth giving him a crack in the rotation.
In my Braves Opening Day roster prediction prior to Spring Training, I had AJ Smith-Shawver winning the final spot in the rotation. I was worried about Ian Anderson being able to bounce back after over two years away from major-league competition. This Spring Training has only emphasized those concerns. Smith-Shawver is the far better pitcher right now, and while the Braves might not be ready to part ways with Anderson just yet, I don’t think they can justify including him the starting rotation to begin the season.
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Photo: Zac BonDurant/Icon Sportswire
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