Simulating the Falcons Offseason: Salary Cap, Free Agency, NFL Draft, Roster Outlook

Step 1: Salary Cap Management

1. Trade QB Kirk Cousins
   • Cap Hit: $40 million
   • Move: Trade Cousins to the Cleveland Browns, who need a veteran QB after a disappointing 2024 season with Deshaun Watson. The Falcons attach a 2026 5th-round pick to offload the contract, and the Browns send a 2026 3rd-round pick in return.
   • Savings: $27.5 million (Cousins’ guaranteed money is absorbed by Cleveland, with Atlanta eating some dead money).
   • New Cap Space: +$22.51 million.

Trading Kirk Cousins is the preferred scenario for the Falcons, but there are a couple of hurdles. While it does bring the most financial relief, Cousins has a no-trade clause and no incentive to waive it for Atlanta.

Moreover, if the Falcons can somehow offload Cousins’ contract, there is a 0% chance they will recoup a third-round pick in the process. In fact, the more likely scenario would be the Falcons would have to attach a third-rounder for a team to trade for Cousins. The next moves are actually three items many believe will happen.

1. Cut DT David Onyemata
   • Cap Hit: $13.5 million
   • Savings: $8.1 million (post-June 1 cut designation spreads dead money).
   • New Cap Space: +$30.61 million.
2. Restructure G Chris Lindstrom’s Contract
   • Cap Hit: $18.6 million
   • Move: Convert part of his base salary into a signing bonus, spreading it over remaining years.
   • Savings: $10 million.
   • New Cap Space: +$40.61 million.
3. Extend DT Grady Jarrett
   • Cap Hit: $20.5 million
   • Move: Add two years to his deal, lowering his 2025 cap hit to $8.5 million.
   • Savings: $12 million.
   • New Cap Space: +$52.61 million.

If you asked Falcons fans, these three moves that most would tell you they would do. Any contract restructure to Chris Lindstrom or any long-term Falcons player would be welcome.

David Onyemata was a good signing for all of about one season before his play tapered off in 2024. Might that change under Jeff Ulbirch? Possibly, but the Falcons are better off giving some of these draft picks like Ruke Orhorhoro and Brandon Dorlus some playing time and saving that $8 million.

Grady Jarrett is an interesting case because there’s virtually no scenario in which the Falcons can let his $20.5 million cap hit go untouched going into 2025. Whether it’s an outright release, a pay cut or an extension, there’s no way Jarrett can be taking up that much cap space. Grok’s solution of an extension is in line with a lot of Falcons fans’ thinking.

Step 2: Free Agency

1. EDGE Josh Sweat (Philadelphia Eagles)
   • Contract: 3 years, $42 million ($14 million AAV, $25 million guaranteed).
   • Rationale: Sweat, 27, is a consistent pass rusher (6.5 sacks in 2024) who fits Raheem Morris’ defensive scheme. He’s an upgrade over departing free agent Matt Judon.
   • Remaining Cap Space: $38.61 million.

Josh Sweat would be an excellent addition to the Falcons pass rush. The 2021 Pro Bowl selection has produced 43 total sacks since being drafted by the Eagles in the fourth round of the 2018 NFL Draft, recording at least six sacks each season since 2020, including a career-best 11 sacks in 2022. 

The 27-year-old is coming off an eight-sack campaign, adding 37 QB hurries and 54 total pressures. While Grok estimates Sweat’s contract will be $14 million per season, Spotrac projects him to land a three-year, $56.4 million deal worth roughly $18.8 million per season.

1. CB Kristian Fulton (Tennessee Titans)
   • Contract: 2 years, $14 million ($7 million AAV, $9 million guaranteed).
   • Rationale: Fulton, 26, is a solid outside corner to pair with A.J. Terrell. The Falcons need secondary help with Mike Hughes and Dee Alford hitting free agency.
   • Remaining Cap Space: $31.61 million.

The Falcons found some stability in Mike Hughes last year, finally giving A.J. Terrell a quality running mate. With Hughes hitting free agency, the club will be in the market for another starting corner.

Hughes is an option, and at the very least, he should be brought back for depth if Ulbrich feels he’s a fit. Fulton is younger than Hughes and has played higher-level football since entering the league, so it could be seen as an upgrade.

1. LB Dre Greenlaw (San Francisco 49ers)
   • Contract: 3 years, $27 million ($9 million AAV, $15 million guaranteed).
   • Rationale: Greenlaw, 27, brings speed and toughness to the linebacker corps, complementing Kaden Elliss. He’s recovering from a 2024 Achilles injury, making him a value signing.
   • Remaining Cap Space: $22.61 million.

A lot of Falcons fans believe linebacker should be a position of emphasis this offseason. Kaden Elliss is more one-dimensional than anything when it comes to the kind of scheme he can play, and Troy Andersen has struggled to stay healthy. Signing Dre Greenlaw would be a buy-low type of signing. If the Falcons can get him where he was pre-Achilles, it would be a homerun signing. It doesn’t come without risk, though.

 Re-Signings:

• C Drew Dalman: 4 years, $40 million ($10 million AAV). A reliable center to anchor the line for Penix.
  • Remaining Cap Space: $12.61 million.
• S Richie Grant: 1 year, $3 million. Depth behind Jessie Bates.
  • Remaining Cap Space: $9.61 million.

Drew Dalman at $10 million per season would be a great deal, but I think that he will get more than that on the open market. He doesn’t love Atlanta that much. The Falcons should still try like hell to re-sign Dalman and keep their line together again.

Step 3: 2025 NFL Draft

• Why: Pearce is a twitched-up edge rusher with elite potential (10 sacks in 2023, SEC leader). He’s raw but has the athleticism to transform Atlanta’s pass rush alongside Sweat.
• Fit: Immediate starter opposite Josh Sweat, replacing Lorenzo Carter.

For the first time, Terry Fontenot drafts a defender in the first round, and it’s James Pearce who possesses all of the tools necessary to become an elite pass rusher in this league. Pearce is a powerful rusher with a bad attitude. The Falcons could use a little more of that.

• Why: Revel is a long, physical corner (6’3”) with ball skills, addressing the Falcons’ need for depth and youth in the secondary.
• Fit: Competes for the nickel role and provides insurance if Fulton struggles.

The Falcons would be foolish not to use every single one of their draft picks on a defender or an offensive lineman, so I have no problem with Revel in the second round. While I don’t know a lot about him, the modern NFL has made the nickel position a starting role, so the Falcons using a premium pick on someone that could fill it should be thought of highly.

• Why: Williams is a powerful interior lineman who can rotate with Jarrett and Ruke Orhorhoro, adding depth to a thin defensive front.
• Fit: Developmental piece with starter potential.

• Why: Bond is a speedy slot receiver who fell due to a crowded WR class. He’s a low-risk flier to give Penix another weapon.
• Fit: Depth behind Drake London and Darnell Mooney.

The Falcons use their final two picks on depth pieces, but Bond could potentially carve out serious playing time as the offense’s WR3 next to Darnell Mooney and Drake Londo. The Falcons haven’t had that kind of speed in the receiver room in a while.

Step 4: Final Roster Outlook

• QB: Michael Penix Jr., Taylor Heinicke
• RB: Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier
• WR: Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Isaiah Bond
• TE: Kyle Pitts, Charlie Woerner
• OL: Jake Matthews, Drew Dalman, Chris Lindstrom, Kaleb McGary, Matthew Bergeron

• DL: Grady Jarrett, Tyleik Williams, Ruke Orhorhoro
• EDGE: Josh Sweat, James Pearce Jr., Arnold Ebiketie
• LB: Kaden Elliss, Dre Greenlaw, Troy Andersen
• CB: A.J. Terrell, Kristian Fulton, Shavon Revel Jr.
• S: Jessie Bates, Richie Grant