Only one Braves player makes Keith Law’s list of top 100 prospects

Prospect guru for The Athletic Keith Law recently released his list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, and only one Braves player appeared, 2023 first-round pick Hurston Waldrep, who clocked in at #80.

Let’s start with the elephant in the room. AJ Smith-Shawver is the top ranked Braves prospect by most outlets, and he doesn’t even crack the top 100. That’s rather shocking, considering Law says in his introduction that he typically favors upside in his prospects over anything else.

I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn’t as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars, and after that I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won’t reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures.

When talking about upside, it’s hard to overlook a live arm that can touch triple digits with his fastball and rose to the major-league ranks from High-A ball last season in a couple of months as a 20-year-old. Smith-Shawver has some kinks to work out, like every prospect, but the upside is there for him to be a legitimate frontline starter. Remember, this is a young man that just started pitching full-time a few years ago, and he’s already experienced some success at the major-league level.

I won’t argue with anyone that has Waldrep ranked higher than Smith-Shawver, however. He also has a live arm and was one of college baseball’s best pitchers in 2023. I was shocked he was still available when the Braves came on the clock. He’s another arm that has the potential to be at or near the top of the rotation, which was on full display during his first taste of professional baseball. In eight starts last year, Waldrep posted a 1.53 ERA and a silly 12.6 K/9, ending the year in AAA.

The Florida product was a non-roster invitee to Spring Training this year. There’s no need for the Braves to rush him, given all the starting pitchers they have at their disposal, but he has the kind of talent that could force the hand of Alex Anthopoulos. Don’t be surprised if he’s a big factor in the Braves success later in the year.

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Photographer: Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire