NFL playoff predictor favors Buccaneers over the Falcons

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NFL: OCT 22 Falcons at Buccaneers

A couple of weeks ago, the Falcons boasted a 6-3 record with a commanding lead in the NFC South. Fast forward to the team’s bye week, Atlanta is no longer secure in their position within the division.

In New Orleans, the Falcons missed three field goals en route to a disappointing loss to the Darren Rizzi-led Saints. It was a difficult pill to swallow, considering how they let it slip through their fingers. However, the following loss was much more demoralizing.

The Broncos didn’t just dominate the Falcons; they embarrassed Atlanta, and it’s allowed a lot of doubt to creep into the minds of fans and analysts alike, sparking some to believe the Falcons postseason berth is no longer a lock.

Some models even favor the Buccaneers. Pro Football Network gives the Bucs a 47.4% chance of making the playoffs, compared to the Falcons’ 45.5% chance.

As of right now, I’d say the Falcons should remain favorites in the division, but it’s certainly no longer comfortable. Let’s play out some scenarios.

If the Falcons finish 3-3, putting them at 9-8 on the season, the Bucs would need to go 6-1 to top their rivals. Even considering Tampa Bay’s favorable schedule, that’s difficult to do.

However, if the Falcons steal a game against the Chargers, Vikings, or Commanders, three games in which they’ll surely be underdogs, they’ll finish 10-7 and force the Bucs to go undefeated the rest of the way. In that same breath, if the Falcons drop a game to a bad team and finish 8-9, they will leave the door wide open for Tampa Bay.

There’s a lot of football left to be played, and other playoff predictors believe the Falcons still have a better chance than the Bucs, like ESPN’s FPI model, which gives Atlanta a 72% chance to end their postseason drought.

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Photographer: Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire

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