By every advanced metric, the Braves are once again set to be the class of baseball, and it’s not even particularly close. The Dodgers may have had a flashy offseason, but all of that was just catching up. The Braves are loaded — from top end talent to the depth — led by the best position player in baseball, Ronald Acuña Jr, and the best pitcher in baseball, Spencer Strider.
David Adler from MLB.com recently went through FanGraphs player projections for the 2024 season and created a list of them that will “blow your mind.” Unsurprisingly, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider were featured.
1) Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves: .318 AVG, 37 HR, 55 SB, 7.3 WAR
Start with the reigning National League MVP, who’s projected to be … the MVP again. And if Acuña puts up these numbers, he might run away with it. Acuña is projected to be the most valuable player in baseball by Wins Above Replacement, and by far the most valuable player in the NL (Mookie Betts is second at 5.9 WAR). He’s also projected for another ridiculous power-speed season, and to win the MLB batting crown (just ahead of Luis Arraez). With this type of season, Acuña probably becomes the first back-to-back MVP since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and ’13.
These projections might just be enough to clinch a second straight MVP for Ronald Acuña Jr, but I would argue they are a bit tame. In 2023, Acuña hit four more homers and had 18 more stolen bases than his projections. He also recorded 8.3 fWAR.
Regression could be in line, but I don’t see it. The only thing that can stop Ronald Acuña Jr. is his health. He’s a five-tool superstar, but last year he added the all important sixth tool that only appears in the game’s greats, his mind. Acuña knows how pitchers want to attack him and is no longer afraid to take his walks. Beyond his power and speed combination, he is beginning to become one of the toughest players to strikeout in the game. As long as he’s healthy, he will eclipse these projections on the way to back-to-back NL MVP awards.
1) Spencer Strider, Braves: 15-7, 3.18 ERA, 257 K
We already know Strider is one of the elite strikeout pitchers in MLB. What’s notable about his stat line here is that he’s projected to win an MLB Triple Crown. The ace of the powerhouse Braves is projected to lead the Majors in wins, ERA and strikeouts. That would make him the first pitching Triple Crown winner in a full season since Justin Verlander (AL) and Clayton Kershaw (NL) in 2011, and the first MLB-wide Triple Crown winner in a full season since Johan Santana in 2006. (Shane Bieber won an MLB pitching Triple Crown in the shortened 2020 season.)
I’ve been saying it for about a year now. Spencer Strider is the most talented pitcher in baseball. Nobody has better stuff, and it’s just a matter of time before he puts it all together and wins several NL Cy Young awards. If Strider can capture the MLB Triple Crown, there’s no doubt he will win his first next season.
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Photo: Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire
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