There is good in college football and then there is the bad. Here are five teams I think should underperform this year. I have included the odds that I bet just for comparison to today’s market. If you missed my five favorite overs for this season, check out the link below. Good luck this season!
Pittsburgh under 5.5 wins (-105)
Most people know Pitt for tough, hard-nosed football under Pat Narduzzi, but last year was anything but that. The Panthers had their worst season in 25 years, winning only three games, and I don’t see a brighter future this season either.
There’s a QB battle between potential first year starter Nate Yarnell and Alabama transfer Eli Holstein. Both are unproven and inexperienced. After averaging only 20 points per game in 2023, Narduzzi brought in Western Carolina OC Kade Bell. Bell looks to bring an up tempo, no huddle offense that wants to go fast, but outside of guys like WR Konata Mumpfield and TE Gavin Bartholomew, there aren’t many weapons. I’m not sure if this new up tempo system will match the talent of the players, especially with a new QB room. And it won’t help that the defense is a big question mark.
It’s a total rebuild after Pitt’s three best defenders hit the portal in the spring, leaving that side of the ball with only two returning starters. Not to mention, a young secondary that will be vulnerable after losing three NFL caliber corners. I expect the defense to be an issue all year long.
Kent State and Youngstown will be two easy wins, but after that, I don’t see many. There are no easy road games with trips to Cincy, UNC, SMU, Louisville, and Boston College, while the Panthers will host Clemson, Syracuse, and Cal. And to make matters worse, the easiest conference game on the schedule–a home contest with Virginia–comes with UVA off of a bye while Pitt is sandwiched between games with SMU and Clemson. The Panthers will host West Virginia in Week 3 in a game I expect Pitt to lose. One of my favorite early bets of the season is West Virginia -4.5 at Pitt in what looks like a total mismatch. I struggle seeing four wins on this schedule, much less six.
Mississippi State under 1.5 conference wins (-112)
Jeff Lebby arrives in Starkville to take over as head coach and offensive coordinator. While I like Lebby and think he’s a bright offensive mind, this will be almost a year zero situation with the Bulldogs returning only two starters from last year’s team. The cupboard is quite bare on offense where there are no returning starters. It’s a brand new offense that will be led by the former Baylor QB Blake Shapen, along with a pretty mediocre running back room and offensive line, and a deep–but unproven– group of wide receivers.
Surprisingly, the defense was not bad last year, but in comes a new DC to work with a unit that lost seven of their top eight tacklers. The only two returners on this side of the ball also happen to be the only two seniors on what looks to be a thin defense. Lebby mentioned trying to bring in guys from the portal during the summer, but there was not much success.
State won five games last year, but it really could have been three wins if Arkansas had scored just one touchdown in a 7-3 home loss, and if Arizona didn’t have five turnovers in an overtime loss in Starkville. This year’s schedule is brutal and the smart bet here is going under on the Bulldogs conference win total. State will travel to Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss for the Egg Bowl, while also welcoming Florida, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Missouri. I don’t see them winning any of the road games, which leaves home dates with Florida and Arkansas as the prime winning opportunities. And while Miss State could pull off one win, I would be surprised to see both since I expect the Gators and Hogs to be much better on paper.
Arizona State under 4.5 wins (-140)
Welcome to the Big 12, Arizona State. Unfortunately, I don’t see it being much of a success. The Sun Devils averaged only 17 points per game last year and are losing their two best players–QB Jaden Rashada and WR Eli Badger. Tailback Cam Skattebo is the strength of the offense with his physical style of running, however, it may not matter with a brand new, inexperienced QB room and a mediocre offensive line.
The offense doesn’t have much to write home about, and the defense isn’t in much better shape. To be fair, the defense probably should improve given the mix of returning players and some portal additions. But it will take some vast improvements from the 31 points per game given up last year, especially with an offense that could come out sputtering.
The schedule isn’t favorable at all. The Devils will be favored in less than three games, and don’t be surprised to see an 0-5 start. Home games vs. Wyoming and Mississippi State will not be easy, nor will a road game at Texas State, one of the G5’s best teams. Arizona State faces the top five teams in the conference, with arguably the two best–Utah and Kansas State–coming off byes before facing the Sun Devils. And even the two coin flip conference games–Texas Tech and Cincinnati–both come on the road. There aren’t many breaks for this young team, and I think head coach Kenny Dillingham is thinking a long term rebuild here. I love the under 4.5 here, or even an under 4 at better odds.
TCU under 7.5 wins (-140)
Sonny Dykes’ Horned Frogs won only five games last year fresh off their National Title appearance, and in a conference full of good quarterback play, there are questions in Fort Worth. Josh Hoover will return after struggling with turnover issues all last season. There’s also Ken Seals from Vanderbilt. I don’t feel confident in either guy, especially behind a new offensive line that lost a lot of players in its two deep. Improved QB play and developing offensive line chemistry will be key for any offensive success.
Former Boise coach Andy Avalos takes over a defense that is filled with experience and depth at linebacker, but struggles in other areas. Like the O Line, the defensive trenches will need a lot of work, especially after losing their best pass rusher Damonic Williams to Oklahoma. There is also youth in the special teams with a freshman kicker and punter.
I like this under bet mainly because of a challenging schedule. The Frogs will travel out to Palo Alto in Week 1 against a Stanford offense that could cause this new defense some problems, and they’ll play UCF the week before back to back trips to SMU and Kansas–which won’t be easy, especially with the Mustangs coming off a bye. TCU goes to Utah and will also host upper tier conference teams Oklahoma State and Arizona. Overall, the Frogs will play five of the conference’s best six teams. I just don’t see eight wins on this schedule. If we’re being generous, I can see maybe six wins (@ Stanford, Long Island, Houston, Texas Tech, @ Baylor, and @ Cincy). Pulling off two upsets with a roster that’s full of questions will be tough.
Old Dominion under 4.5 (-135)
This bet ranks among my absolute favorites. I’m fading ODU in Year five of Ricky Rahne, who hasn’t had a winning season yet in Norfolk. The Monarchs come into this season with not much momentum at all after blowing a 28-0 lead against WKU in their overtime loss in the Famous Toastery Bowl. The good news is they kept LB Jason Henderson–one of the best linebackers in the country at any level–who was a 1st Team All-American last year and led the nation in tackles. But any other signs of talent on that shaky defense are gone after losing multiple transfers to Power 4 schools. With a brand new secondary that is a major concern and lots of new faces, I’m not confident in the ODU defense this year. Grant Wilson will be back at QB, but there isn’t much to write home about on offense.
ODU won six games last year, all of them by one possession, and were a few plays away from potentially being 3-9. Last season’s 6-6 record is a bit misleading, and the 2024 schedule proves to be a gauntlet. The Monarchs are facing a likely 0-4 start in non-conference play, with games against South Carolina, East Carolina, and Virginia Tech. A winnable game against Bowling Green comes on the road, followed by two road conference games. That’s right…ODU plays three road games in three straight weeks, with the last two (Coastal and Georgia State) both coming off their own bye weeks!
What a brutal stretch. And their home games come against two of the best teams in the Sun Belt, JMU and Texas State. Both of them look like losses. We haven’t even mentioned road games with Sun Belt favorite App State, or a trip to Arkansas State. Even the “easy” home game against Georgia Southern comes on short rest and is sandwiched between contests with the two best conference teams. There are just no easy games on this schedule and it would be nothing short of a college football miracle if coach Ricky Rahne pulled five wins off with this group.
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Photographer: Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire
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