Welcome back, College Football. And also, welcome back win totals. Betting on win totals has been quite profitable for me over the last few years, including a great year in 2023. There are lots I like in 2024, but here are five teams you should be betting to go over their win totals this season.
SMU over 8 wins (-117)
It’s Year One in the ACC for SMU, and I expect them not to skip a beat coming off of an 11 win season in 2023. The Mustangs return a lot of production from a team that had a top 15 ranked offense and defense. The offense should have no problem scoring in bunches with quarterback Preston Stone, who already projects as one of the best QBs in the ACC. Running backs Jaylan Knighton and Camar Wheaton are an explosive backfield duo, while Jake Bailey (last year’s leading receiver) and Jordan Hudson lead a talented receiver room. Don’t forget tight end R.J. Maryland, who should be one of the ACC’s best. And there’s a lot of depth and experience on defense too, with potential All-Conference players on all three levels.
There are plenty of winnable games on a schedule that has SMU playing only two of the top six teams in the conference. The Mustangs get Florida State in Dallas the weekend before the Seminoles play Clemson. Watch out for an FSU look ahead spot in that game! SMU travels to Louisville the following week in what could be another tough test but all other games are winnable, especially the basement ACC teams like Stanford, Virginia, and Pittsburgh. I like this SMU roster a lot, and love a bet on over 8 or 8.5 wins given the favorable schedule.
Oklahoma State over 7.5 wins (-175)
It should be a big year in Stillwater with Mike Gundy’s squad having one of the most veteran teams in the country. Sitting in the top three in returning production, the Cowboys bring back 20 starters from last year’s ten win team.
Ollie Gordon is the headliner as a Heisman caliber running back who should only improve running behind one of the most experienced and deep offensive lines in the nation. I’m not a huge fan of Alan Bowman at quarterback, but in his seventh season of college football, I expect him to be good enough to hand off to Gordon and not make mistakes. Bowman should have plenty of time to work behind that O Line to find talented, proven receivers on the outside like Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens. And there is room to improve on a defense that returns lots of key pieces.
There are two All-Big 12 players at linebacker, including the conference’s leading tackler, and the secondary and trenches are solid. The defense will be pretty middle of the road by Big 12 standards, but the offense will be good enough that it may not matter.
Hosting FCS contender South Dakota State and then Arkansas in the first two weeks isn’t exactly an ideal, cupcake start, but both of them should be wins on paper followed by a trip to lowly Tulsa. Back to back games vs. Utah and @ Kansas State will be tough, with the Pokes small underdogs in both games.
After that, the schedule should be a breeze with basement teams like BYU, Baylor, Arizona State, and Colorado. Oklahoma State projects to be favored in every game on the schedule except for the Utah and K State games–which have spreads at Utah -1 and K State -5.5, both less than a touchdown. I trust Gundy and what should be an explosive offense with a relatively easy schedule to go over 7.5 here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see nine or ten wins on the cards.
Vanderbilt over 2.5 wins (-175)
I wouldn’t normally promote a bet with odds like -175, but I’m confident in Vanderbilt going over this number. Head coach Clark Lea ditched his “developing players” system and went to the portal where he found some quality players, mainly on the defensive side. Vandy will return two of their best defensive players from 2023 in LB Langston Patterson and safety CJ Taylor, and Lea announced that he will be calling the defense this year–something he hasn’t done since he was DC at Notre Dame.
The Dores will turn to former New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia to run the offense alongside his former OC Tim Beck and head coach Jerry Kill, who comes in as an analyst. What excites me is a bit of a change in style with Vandy expected to throw in a little more option attack. This should keep opponents on their heels and keep defenses guessing.
You only need three wins to cash this bet, and I could see it happening by mid October. Alcorn State in Week 2 should be the first, followed by Georgia State the next week. Vandy will travel to Atlanta to face the Panthers who have a depleted roster after tons of coaching turnover and a brand new staff under Dell McGee. Vandy projects as a small favorite in that game, and circle October 19th when Vandy hosts Ball State, another G5 team that is usually pretty decent but is facing lots of roster turnover with head coach Mike Neu squarely on the hot seat.
This should be a Vanderbilt win over a very mediocre Group of 5 team. Should the Dores lose one of these games I still believe we can see a conference upset (DraftKings has Vanderbilt over 0.5 conference wins at -160). Look for potential upset spots like @ Kentucky, @ Auburn, or when Vandy hosts South Carolina.
Nebraska over 7.5 wins (+110)
It may be bold, but I’m going to buy the hype in Lincoln this year. Matt Rhule has been incredibly successful transitioning from Year 1 to Year 2 in his time at Temple and Baylor, and I believe he will do something similar this year.
This is the most talent the Huskers have had in a while. The big name is #1 overall recruit Dylan Raiola at quarterback, but keep an eye on two wideout transfers Isaiah Neyor from Texas and Jahmal Banks from Wake Forest. Both guys had great springs with their new offense. There’s also the trenches, which will be a strength of the roster this year. Nebraska can match almost anyone in the conference when it comes to offensive and defensive line play.
I expect equal or improved production from a defense that was ranked 11th nationally last year and is returning most of its key players. The defense will keep this team in games again and Raiola is an upgrade at quarterback from the turnover-happy Jeff Sims.
There’s a real case the Corn could start off 7-0 or 6-1. With easy non-conference and bottom feeder Big Ten games, the only tests for Nebraska in the first six weeks will be home games with Colorado and Rutgers. And while I like Indiana this year, Nebraska is coming off a bye before it plays the Hoosiers. Traveling to Ohio State is probably a loss in late October, but after that are winnable games such as UCLA and Wisconsin (both in Lincoln) and the Thanksgiving showdown at Iowa. I’m buying into Rhule and his improved roster this year, with a huge upgrade at QB and one of the conference’s best defenses. I can see eight or nine wins on this schedule.
Texas State over 8 wins (+100)
Look for the Bobcats to not only challenge for the Sun Belt crown, but also possibly the Group of 5 playoff spot. It’s year two for coach G.J. Kinne who brought one of the country’s most explosive offenses to San Marcos last year. That same unit brings back almost every major piece, which includes adding one of the better G5 running backs in Deion Hankins from UTEP. Quarterback T.J. Finley is off to Western Kentucky, but no worries. Jordan McCloud, one of the G5’s best, comes over from James Madison and should fit seamlessly into this offense that could eclipse their 37 points per game from last season.
The defense, however, does need to improve. The Bobcats return seven starters on that side and added one of the best pass rushers in the FCS, Steven Parker. They also bring back their entire secondary. G.J. Kinne said over the offseason that the defense has improved tons. I’m gonna take his word for it.
The schedule couldn’t be much nicer. Texas State avoids the other two best teams in the conference, App State and James Madison, and outside of a tough conference road game at Troy, all of the big games come at home. UTSA comes calling in Week 2, followed by a home game vs Arizona State. I like Texas State in an upset against the Sun Devils. Other tough conference battles with Arkansas State and Louisiana will both come at home in San Marcos. I see a 2-1 or 3-0 start with not many loseable conference games. Not to mention, a cakewalk November schedule that features most of the Sun Belt’s basement teams. It’s a perfect recipe for a big year for Texas State. I love over 8 wins, but would also play over 8.5, where it looks to have settled on most books.
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Photo: Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire
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