The Falcons take on the Saints this weekend as the teams begin division play. Let’s take a look at the keys to victory for Atlanta.
Establish the run, protect Kirk Cousins; stop the run, pressure Derek Carr
Seems simple enough, right?
The Saints offense was electric over the first two weeks, getting everything they wanted. Klint Kubiak has been a revelation, getting Derek Carr comfortable in his system with a successful run game and play action passing game. However, we saw Vic Fangio and the Eagles defense stifle New Orleans’ offense last week. Jimmy Lake and the Falcons defense should take a blueprint out of Fangio’s book because they haven’t been able to slow anyone’s rushing attack down so far.
In that same breath, the Falcons offense is at its best under the same conditions — running the football with play action off of it. Atlanta might be down Kaleb McGary as well as Drew Dalman. Going against a great Saints defense isn’t going to be easy, but it will be easier if they can establish the run early and often. It’ll make pass protection a bit easier if New Orleans is off balance.
Win the turnover battle
The Falcons have given the ball away two more times than turnovers they’ve forced. That’s never going to lead to sustained success. The Saints, on the other hand, rank third in the league with a +4 turnover differential. Jessie Bates III had a pick-six inside the red zone the last time Derek Carr came to Atlanta, and Justin Simmons logged his first interception as a Falcon last week. It seems like it’ll be up to one of those guys to make a game-altering play. Likewise, the Falcons have to protect the football. Kirk Cousins cannot commit a turnover, but this Saints defense will surely make it difficult.
Win third down
The Falcons offense has been horrible on third downs, converting just 22.22% of the time, which ranks 29th in the league. On the flip side of things, the Saints have been excellent in this area, converting on nearly 53% of the third downs, good for second in the NFL. Atlanta’s defense allows opposing offenses to convert on 45.45% of third downs, which ranks 26th in the league, compared to the New Orleans defense, which allows a 35.14% conversion rate.
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It’s a simple yet difficult game plan.
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Photographer: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire
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