The Chris Sale trade doesn’t come without risk for the Atlanta Braves.
The Boston Red Sox received Vaughn Grissom in return for the veteran southpaw in a deal that makes sense and could work out for both sides. Grissom should slot in immediately at second base, which was never a possibility in Atlanta.
With the acquisition of Jarred Kelenic, Grissom wasn’t going to play much in left field, and he needs everyday at-bats. He couldn’t beat out Orlando Arcia at shortstop while second and third base won’t be available for years.
There was just no immediate path to the field for Vaughn Grissom, but there’s undoubtedly a risk with the Chris Sale trade.
He’ll be 35 years old in March, had Tommy John surgery in 2020 and dealt with injuries in 2022 and 2023. Sale also didn’t have a very encouraging campaign last year with a 4.30 ERA over 20 starts. So, why would Anthopoulos take the risk?
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic believes the Braves GM’s idea is that Sale can become Charlie Morton 2.0, “Charlie Morton, that’s the upside the Braves envision for Chris Sale. It is a lot to ask. But as Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos weighed two powerful forces – the acquisition cost for starting pitching this offseason and the Braves’ expanding payroll – he evidently concluded Sale was his team’s most realistic option.”
The price for starting pitching continues to rise. For a GM that prioritizes value, the free agent and trade markets don’t feature much of it. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has never thrown a pitch in the majors and signed a record $325 million deal.
Sonny Gray, 34, signed a three-year, $75 million deal and also cost a draft pick. Frankie Montas and Jack Flaherty went for $16 million and $14 million, respectively, despite coming off two straight seasons of underperforming.
Only Lord knows what Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Shota Imanaga will garner as free agents or what Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes will bring back in trades.
So, Alex Anthopoulos took the route that had little financial risk. Chris Sale will only cost $500K in 2024 because the Sox will cover $17 million of his salary this year, and the other $10 million is deferred until 2039. He also has a club option of $20 million in 2025, which would be the exact price of Charlie Morton, who came over in 2020.
Morton signed a $15 million deal in November 2020 and pitched to the tune of a 3.34 ERA, helping the Braves to the World Series. The last two seasons haven’t been as good as the first, but he’s been a workhorse on the mound, averaging 31 starts per year with a 3.77 ERA since joining the Braves.
If Chris Sale can be that guy, Alex Anthopoulos will like the way he came out of this deal. There’s reason to believe he can produce for the Braves. Though his entire body of work wasn’t great in 2023, he did post a 29.4% strikeout rate and had a 3.72 FIP over his final 10 starts.
The risk goes beyond 2024, though. Max Fried seems primed to test free agency after the season; Charlie Morton cannot be counted on as he’s likely to mull retirement again, and what if Sale doesn’t bounce back? The Braves will have plenty of money coming off the books, but it’ll likely force Alex Anthopoulos into a free agent market that he’s refrained from dipping his toes in since taking over in Atlanta.
At the end of the season, we’ll know more about the future of the rotation with the development of A.J. Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, and the return of Husacar Ynoa and Ian Anderson.
The Chris Sale trade could work out very well for the Braves. He’s a menacing veteran with plenty of postseason experience and could solidify the rotation for just $20.5 million over the 2024 and 2025 seasons. It doesn’t come without risk, though.
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Photographer:Â Charles Brock/Icon Sportswire
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