The Braves are winners of eight of their last 10 games, and it’s been on the backs of the starting rotation.
Whether it’s Chris Sale, Max Fried, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, or every other Charlie Morton start, Atlanta can fully expect a quality outing as of late. It’s been the formula for success, and it won’t change in October.
It’s why, if the Braves just get into the dance, they have a legitimate shot to win it all. That and the field is as weak as ever; it’s the crapshoot of all crapshoots.
A few months ago, the Braves rotation looked to be a real concern when Spencer Strider went down with a season-ending injury. However, Sale’s return to stardom along with Lopez and Schwellenbach’s emergence has the rotation looking better than ever, for now and in the future.
It’s also made the idea of losing Max Fried in free agency much more bearable. Atlanta’s ace is set to cash in this winter, and it could be a deal with the Braves. But more than more than likely, he’ll garner a massive payday elsewhere, a payday that could grow exponentially, depending on how he finishes out the 2024 campaign, ESPN’s Jeff Passan says.
Fried’s consistent excellence is too frequently taken for granted. Of all the pitchers with at least 800 innings since Fried’s 2017 debut, here are the ERA leaders:
- Jacob deGrom: 2.41
- Clayton Kershaw: 2.71
- Justin Verlander: 2.76
- Max Scherzer: 2.82
- Max Fried: 3.11
- Chris Sale: 3.16
- Gerrit Cole: 3.16
- Blake Snell: 3.21
- Shane Bieber: 3.22
- Corbin Burnes: 3.26
The only ones in that group not to win a Cy Young Award are Fried and Sale (this year’s NL favorite). It’s elite company. And that’s because Fried has been an elite pitcher. He’s not a strikeout artist like many of his ERA cohorts — he generates ground balls and limits home runs. It’s not the sexiest. But it’s effective. And it’s replicable as he ages.
The issue is, Fried’s walk year has been good, not great. His stuff is not grading well in pitch models. His walks are up. Most of all, though, he hasn’t stayed healthy. The biggest ding against him regards his workload. His career-high innings total is 185.1.
So what would behoove Fried? Stay healthy and shove. For all of September and as much of October as Atlanta lasts. Burn it into the minds of executives and owners: When it really matters, Max Fried is there to carry a rotation. And if he does that, the seven-year echelon could be his to join.
About the only knocks on Max Fried are his injury history and his somewhat lack of postseason success. He owns a career 4.57 ERA in 65.0 innings in the playoffs, but Fried’s six scoreless innings in Game 6 of the World Series should ease some concerns there. The injury concerns are reasonable, but every pitcher in today’s MLB will run into some time on the injured list at some point.
Staying healthy in 2024 doesn’t have as much to do with proving he can stay healthy, but rather enter free agency with a clean bill of health. Max Fried is who he is at this point. He’s got the kind of skill set that will age like a fine wine. Interested clubs will see that.
The Braves will have no shortage of suitors to compete with, regardless of how he pitches this season.
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David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire
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