The Braves find themselves amid an exhausting season, dealing with injury after injury to their biggest stars.
The reigning MVP and pre-season Cy Young favorite were lost for the year early in the season, but Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider were hardly the only stars that spent time on the injured list this season.
Eight different All-Stars hitting the IL at one point or another, which doesn’t even include A.J. Minter, Michael Harris II, and Pierce Johnson, who have all missed significant time as well.
Somehow, the club has remained in the playoff race, holding on to the last spot in the NL Wild Card. If they can get healthy and into the dance, anything can happen. But regardless of what happens in 2024, this winter should be incredibly entertaining.
The Braves will have decisions on a number of free agents, including AJ Minter, Marcell Ozuna, and Charlie Morton, while Max Fried’s free agency headlines the group.
Atlanta’s ace is set to test the open market this offseason, and the overwhelming expectation is that he will indeed sign elsewhere. It’s not that the Braves won’t be able to offer a lucrative contract, but the starting pitcher market will likely take Fried’s price to a place that Alex Anthopoulos isn’t comfortable with.
However, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel doesn’t see it that way. The outlook sees Fried “comfortably get nine figures” in free agency, between $100 to $200 million-ish. I think they’re undervaluing just how much someone is willing to pay for one of the most consistent lefties on the planet.
McDaniel sees Corbin Burnes drawing “surely over $200 million” in free agency, likely closer to $300 million than $200 million. His reasoning for that figure is sound, but it applies to Fried as well.
They’re both going to be 30 years old in free agency, unlikely to get as much as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but more than Aaron Nola. The Braves reportedly offered Nola somewhere in the ballpark of $168 million, so one would assume they’d be comfortable giving Max Fried a little bit more.
Since 2020, Max Fried owns a 2.85 ERA across 104 starts compared to Corbin Burnes’ 2.91 ERA across 127 starts. Burnes’ WHIP (1.018) is better than Fried’s (1.103) over that period, as well as his FIP, but the Braves ace is in the same conversation in terms of free agent value.
Durability may be a factor in why Burnes gets more money, and that would be a fair point, but Fried is closer to Burnes than Jack Flaherty, who McDaniel included in the same free agent tier.
If he remains healthy, Max Fried could easily eclipse $200 million in free agency, and nobody should be surprised if it’s closer to $250 million than $200 million. Can the Braves go that far? I’m not sure.
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David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire
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