The Falcons will travel to Bank of America Stadium sitting at 5-7 to face a Panthers team sporting the same record; both are incredibly desperate for a victory to keep their playoff chances alive. Carolina started the season hot, winning three in a row but has tailed off and lost seven of their last nine; however, one of those wins came against the Falcons. Atlanta has lost four of their previous six, and their offense has looked horrid in recent weeks, even with the occasional flashes.
If the Falcons are to win this game, it’ll take a more complete performance from the offense but also the defense — the unit playing better football at the moment. When your defense gives up over 360 yards per game (25th), almost 120 yards on the ground per game (22nd), more than 27 points per game (31st), and is the better element of the team, it can’t be good. Still, Dean Pees’ guys don’t need to force three turnovers and hold Matt Rhule’s offense to less than 200 total yards to win the football game. But they will have to limit them to give a struggling Falcons offense a chance, so how will Atlanta stop Cam Newton and Carolina? It seems… stop the run.
#Falcons DC Dean Pees was asked if he expects the #Panthers to try to run the ball: “Oh, absolutely. Why wouldn’t they.” (They ran 47 times for 203 yards in last meeting.) pic.twitter.com/wRNalWQSeT
— D. Orlando Ledbetter (@DOrlandoAJC) December 9, 2021
I can appreciate Pees’ bluntness in saying exactly what is written on the wall. The Panthers can’t throw the ball at all, but they’ve somewhat shown an ability to run it; the recent firing of Joe Brady and Rhule’s sentiments about running the ball points to something obvious — the Panthers are going to try and pound the rock. With the 29th ranked passing and 16th ranked rushing offense, there really is only one option, especially with Cam Newton under center.
With two bad units going head-to-head, something has to give. The Falcons have been somewhat decent in defending the run, and the Panthers have been somewhat decent at running — so, it won’t be pleasant. Carolina runs on an absurd amount of first downs but isn’t that effective when they do. Getting behind the chains with a terrible pass protecting offensive line and bad quarterback play is a recipe for one of the worst offenses in football. Well, the firing of Brady seemingly means Rhule wants more of that slop. I’m sure Brady wanted to take the offense in a different direction, passing more on first downs, and his head coach wanted to run it twice as much as they passed it, as he did at Baylor.
If I were Carolina’s offensive coordinator, I would ride Newtown’s legs until it stops working. Running the ball with Chubba Hubbard and Cam Newton — zone read, zone read, zone read — while building RPOs off of that in order to attack the space behind Deion Jones and Foyesade Oluokun. The Falcons’ second-level defense has lapsed at times when dropping into coverage, and if the Panthers can get D.J. Moore the ball in space, they should be successful. It begins with establishing the run though, and for the Falcons, they must stop it.
Even though Tampa Bay only rushed for 57 yards last week, the Falcons defense had previously given up 100 yards six straight times, including a 200-yard day by the Panthers. It begins and ends in the trenches. The Falcons might have the worst pass rush in the league, so at the very least, they should have some pride about stopping the run.
Obviously, specific techniques require different leverages and executing them can be challenging given some situations, but understanding your assignments and not trying to make a play will go a long way in this matchup. Rhule has publically stated how he wants the offense to run it 33 times, an oddly specific number, so the Falcons can absolutely prepare for a smash-mouth game.
With his tendency to play more defensive backs than base personnel, Pees requires his secondary to support the run with as much effort and intensity as they defend the pass. It’ll be crucial for these safeties and corners to play their role and help slow down the Panthers rushing attack. The last time these teams played, Carolina ran the ball 47 times for 203 yards and won the game 19-13. Rhule’s offense has only eclipsed his 33 rushes mark twice since he made the comment, but they’ve won both of those games. It is no secret what they’re going to try to do; this one might come down to a game of wills.
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