Have the Falcons benefited from a weak schedule?

By any metric other than wins, the Falcons are a terrible team. Atlanta ranks 26th in points scored, 25th in total touchdowns, 28th in points given up, 32nd in sacks, and 22nd in total turnovers forced. The Falcons have been extraordinarily lucky with their divisional draws, playing both the AFC and NFC East. There is only one team — the Dallas Cowboys — with a record currently over .500 in the NFC East, while the AFC East boasts two teams with records below .500, as well as the Bills, who sit at 7-6. It’s safe to say that the Falcons have benefited from a weaker schedule.

To begin with, the Panthers and Saints aren’t formidable teams at this point. The idea has been floating around the media that offensive-minded head coach Matt Rhule could be on the hot seat, given the Panthers’ recent inability to put points on the board. The Saints have a decent roster, but the poor level of play at quarterback has halted any attempts at success in a post-Brees world. The NFC South is just not a very strong division, which benefits the Falcons.

Atlanta has also matched up with two other fourth-place finishers from 2020, those being the Lions and 49ers. Additionally, the Falcons are lined up to play the disastrous Jaguars in the extra regular-season game. It really has been an easier path than most others teams have had to face! Arthur Smith’s first win as a head coach came against the Giants, who are now 4-9, by a three-point margin. Smith’s subsequent victory came against the Jets in London, who are now 3-10. Just as a side note, Smith still hasn’t won a game in front of his home crowd, which is discouraging.

The Falcons’ six total wins have come against opposing teams with a collective win percentage of .333 by an average of 4.8 points. On the flip side, Atlanta’s losses have come by an average margin of 19.6 points. Beating the bad teams while getting their asses kicked by the good ones has been the story of the 2021 Falcons, evident in their historically bad scoring margin of -108. FiveThirtyEight put all of these figures into historical perspective.

Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, only four teams have won at least seven games with a scoring margin worse than the Falcons’ current -108. If Atlanta beats Detroit in Week 16, which our model gives a 76 percent chance of happening, poor showings in their other three games could make Atlanta the worst seven-win team ever:

The Falcons’ final four games come against teams with a collective record of 21-40, which is one of the easiest finishes in the NFL. The Falcons could potentially finish as the worst playoff team in league history, but finishing second in the division would pit Atlanta against other second-place NFC finishers in the postseason, instead of the last-place finishers they’ve played all year.