FanGraphs projects contracts of Max Fried and Charlie Morton

MLB: SEP 29 Royals at Braves

FanGraphs recently dropped their list of the top 50 MLB free agents ahead of the 2025 season, and a couple of Braves starting pitchers were mentioned, headlined by Max Fried, who is the seventh-best free agent in this year’s class.

Max Fried

Contract Projections:

Ben Clemens: 5 years, $140 million

Median Crowdsource: 5 years, $125 million

Max Fried’s free agency will be intriguing to watch because of what happened to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery last offseason, two left-handed starting pitchers with similar resumés. Both Snell and Montgomery were represented by Scott Boras, who held out to the very last second in hopes of landing them long-term, lucrative contracts. Deals that never came, forcing them to sign short-term contracts with opt-outs.

I don’t imagine Fried will make the same mistake, which suggests his figure may not be as high as originally anticipated. As Ben Clemens of FanGraphs notes, Aaron Nola’s deal from last offseason is probably Fried’s ceiling. However, Nola entered free agency with a much better track record of durability, something that’s become very attractive to clubs that plan on spending big money.

“No surprise, then, that I rank them similarly,” Clemens writes. “Aaron Nola is probably the upside here, but he had shown far more durability than Fried, and similar run prevention skills, before signing a seven-year deal last offseason. I think Fried will get a higher AAV over fewer years as a result.”

A five-year deal in the range of $125-140 million is a more than palatable figure for a pitcher of Fried’s caliber. I could see the Braves potentially being interested in bringing him back at that number, but as Clemens notes, it only takes one team to really like Fried for this number to get much higher.

“If there’s a risk to my projection here, though, it’s to the high side. Fried is one of only three starters who feel like slam dunk options at the top of the class (four if you count Cole), so you could imagine a team that missed their first-choice ace pivoting to Fried and paying up to secure him.”

Charlie Morton

Contract Projections: 

Ben Clemens: 1 year, $17 million

Median Crowdsource: 1 year, $14 million

To the surprise of many, it’s looking like Charlie Morton desires to play another year, and he’s made it abundantly clear how much he adores playing for the Braves organization. If the price for Max Fried gets too high for Alex Anthopoulos’ comfort, the Braves could do a lot worse than bringing back Charlie Morton on a one-year contract in the $15 million range to round out the rotation.

Photo: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire

 

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