FanGraphs is incredibly high on Braves top prospect Drake Baldwin

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Following a breakout campaign in 2024, the excitement is palpable surrounding Braves top prospect Drake Baldwin entering the 2025 season. He’s become a consensus top 50 prospect in baseball, but one outlet is much higher on him than that. In their annual release of top 100 prospects, FanGraphs had Drake Baldwin ranked 11th, citing his elite offensive skills with improved defense behind the plate. 

“Baldwin’s ability to move his hands around the zone and spray well-struck contact to all fields is commensurate with an impact primary catcher,” Eric Longenhagen writes for FanGraphs. “He’s thick and physical, rotates with ferocity, and yet his short levers keep his swing from getting too long. He again posted a hard-hit rate up around 50% in 2024, though Baldwin almost exclusively inside-outs fastballs the other way and big league pitchers might be able to limit his game power by attacking him with velocity on the outer third. Though a bunch of his TrackMan data is very similar to Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing, Baldwin’s power is not as well-actualized, and stylistically, he looks more like an all-fields doubles hitter. He does a little bit of everything at a position where one thing is often enough.”

Drake Baldwin had a meager start to the 2024 season in Mississippi, recording just a .650 OPS over 52 games. However, that’s not all that atypical in the Southern League. Once Baldwin received the call to Gwinnett, his numbers skyrocketed, hitting .298 with 12 homers and an .891 OPS over his final 72 games.

Offensively, Baldwin is already MLB ready at a position like catcher, which doesn’t feature many plus-bats. His power to all fields is his calling card, but his plate discipline should not be overlooked. He only had 54 strikeouts in Gwinnett compared to 52 walks. Whether that power results in more doubles or home runs will ultimately determine his ceiling, but it’s reasonable to expect Baldwin could be a 25+ homer guy at the major-league level.

Defensively, Drake Baldwin is never going to be elite like his future teammate Sean Murphy behind the plate, but his ability to throw runners out at second is an area that turned heads last season.

“Baldwin has made impressive developmental progress on defense. The Braves drastically altered some stylistic elements of his receiving, most notably paring down Baldwin’s footwork and putting him more regularly on one knee, and it has taken him some time to get comfortable with that. His receiving and ball blocking are only fair, while the quickness and consistency of his exchange on throws to second base has become excellent. What he lacks in height relative to most catchers, he makes up for in bodily density. He’s of sturdy build and caught close to 100 games in 2024 when you take his AFL and Premier12 postseason activity into account. Though he’s not currently on the 40-man roster, Baldwin is in position for a 2025 debut, and given Sean Murphy‘s injury track record, it’s possible he’ll get some extended run.”

The way the Braves handle their catching situation will be intriguing. It’s highly unlikely Baldwin will get an opportunity in Atlanta to begin the season. The Braves probably want to get him as many reps as possible in Gwinnett, where he can play every day. Right now, Sean Murphy will receive a bulk of the reps behind the plate, and Marcell Ozuna will serve as the DH every day.

However, Ozuna is a free agent after this season. If Baldwin continues to show he’s ready with the stick, 2026 could be the year he’s featured in the lineup every day. Catching on days where Murphy needs some rest and designated hitting on others. Regardless, it feels like Baldwin will be a part of the major-league club at some point this year, especially if an injury arises to Murphy or Ozuna at any point during the season.

Photo: Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire

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