In the first primetime matchup between first-round rookie quarterbacks in NFL history, Michael Penix Jr. will lead the Falcons against Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders.
Betting Spread: Commanders (-4)
The Falcons have been a nearly impossible team to predict, given their inconsistent play dating back to Week 1. There has to be a little more confidence with Michael Penix Jr. under center, but he’s still a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start on the road. That’s a variable that comes with a lot of risk at the betting window.
However, there are some things pointing to the Falcons in this matchup. This is a team that wants to pound the rock. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are possibly the top one-two punch at the running back position in all of football, with the former breaking out as a star in his second season. The Commanders are one of the worst teams at stopping the run, ranking 29th in the league and giving up nearly 140 yards per game on the ground. The Falcons should be able to run the rock at will in this matchup, allowing them to control the clock and keep soon-to-be Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels on the sideline.
Hungry dogs also tend to run faster. The Falcons are getting more than a field goal in a matchup with their season on the line. While the Commanders are also in the playoff race, their win over the Eagles gives them a little cushion. They could easily lose this game and still make the playoffs with a win next week. Coming off an emotional victory, this might be a good spot to play the Falcons.
Pick: Falcons +4
Total (Over/Under 47.5 Points)
The Commanders offense has been a wagon for most of the season, which on paper, looks like a mismatch against an underwhelming Falcons defense. However, Jimmy Lake’s group has been much more formidable of late, particularly when it comes to sacking the quarterback. The Falcons have 16 sacks in their last four games, the most in the NFL over that stretch.
The question is whether that will carry over into this matchup with the Commanders, who have a much better offense than the Chargers, Giants, and Raiders. If the game goes the way the Falcons would like, they’ll chew the clock with their offense on the field in hopes of winning the game in the fourth quarter. The weather could also play a factor, as it is expected to be wet and windy on Sunday.
Pick: Under 47.5
Best Prop Bet: Jayden Daniels Over Completions (20.5)
Jayden Daniels had a lull in the middle of the season due to injury, but he’s looked like an entirely different player in recent weeks. Daniels has gone over 21 completions in five straight weeks, and there’s nothing to suggest that will not continue against a Falcons defense that has no problem giving up short passes to prevent anything from getting by them. Trust Jayden Daniels to go over this number again on Sunday.
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Photographer: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire
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