Falcons: Veteran trade candidates that could be moved along with Dan Quinn

After losing to the Packers last night on ESPN’s Monday Night Football, the Falcons are 0-4 for the first time since 1999. Last night was much of the same, Quinn was out-strategized and out-coached. He even called a timeout for the Green Bay offense — not once, but twice — during a critical two-minute drive that resulted in a touchdown right before the half. This latest Dan Quinn blunder seems like it should be the final nail in his coffin. Even if he is not fired this week, it seems inevitable that the Falcons will eventually move on from him. 

It is obvious Quinn no longer possesses the mental fortitude necessary for leading an NFL football team. The only question that remains is how Arthur Blank will handle the general manager position. If Blank decides Thomas Dimitroff is absolved of blame and eventually retained, it will behoove Dimitroff to get a jumpstart on next year’s dilemmas. He must acquire draft capital and eliminate unnecessary contracts in anticipation of the drop in salary cap due to loss of revenue from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trading veteran pieces is a conducive way to shrink salaries while concurrently obtaining future draft capital. Last year, Dimitroff showed why he is a two-time executive of the year by trading away Mohamed Sanu to the Patriots for a 2020 second-round pick. He believed in developing younger guys like Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage, who are now proving him right. Sanu is not currently on an NFL roster, while the Falcons have their #1 and #2 wide receivers of the future combined with an additional high draft pick. Let us take a look at some current veterans that could be traded.

 

Tyeler Davison

With the development of John Cominsky and Marlon Davidson, Tyeler Davison could find himself on the trade block. Davison has played like an average defensive lineman, and Marlon Davidson’s potential is irrefutable. The Falcons may want to take their time with Davidson’s development, but at this point, consider Davison expendable.

Davison would be a good rotational defensive lineman for a playoff-caliber team thin at the position, fetching a sixth or seventh-round pick. If traded before the deadline (pre-June 1st), his dead cap figures would be $3.6 million in 2020, $2.4 million in 2021, and $1.2 million in 2022 for a total dead cap of $7.2 million. The savings for a pre-June 1st trade would be -$1.3 million in 2020, $2.2 million in 2021, and $3.8 million in 2022 for a total cap savings of $4.7 million. If traded post-June 1st, the dead cap would be only $1.213 for the remaining years on the contract for a total dead hit of $3.639 million. The cap savings associated with a post-June 1st trade would be $1.11 million in 2020, $3.45 million in 2021, and $3.8 million in 2022 for a total cap savings of $8.36 million.

 

Ricardo Allen

The Atlanta secondary has been decimated by injuries this year. Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal did not play against the Packers, while Damontae Kazee and Jaylinn Hawkins both went down during the game with injuries. Allen has had trouble staying healthy too, and is more talented mentally than physically. If he were traded, it would not have significant financial differences, but in my opinion, Allen could net a fifth-round draft pick.

If traded before the deadline (pre-June 1st), Allen’s dead cap figures would be $4.25 million in 2020 and $2.125 million in 2021 for a total dead cap of $6.375 million. The savings for a pre-June 1st trade would be $3.125 million in 2020 and $6.25 million in 2021 for a total cap savings of $9.375 million. If traded post-June 1st, the dead cap would be only $2.125 million for the remaining years on the contract for a total dead hit of $5.925 million. The cap savings associated with a post-June 1st trade would be $5.25 million in 2020 and $6.25 million in 2021 for a total cap savings of $11.5 million.

 

Alex Mack

Mack has been one of the most consistent leaders on this team and anchors the offensive line. In my estimation, it would garner a third-round pick resulting in $2.5 million in dead cap, but save Atlanta $8 million on this year’s cap. Mack is in the final year of his contract, set to be a free agent this offseason. It makes sense to see some return on Mack before that happens.

This decision would not be without repercussions. Mack’s presence solidifies the offensive line, and his departure could have negative effects on Matt Ryan. The front office and coaching staff are high on Matt Hennessey, who was essentially drafted as Mack’s replacement, but there is a learning curve associated with switching offensive line positions, especially center. Hennessey would most certainly struggle, but the only way the front office knows if he is the center of the future is by throwing him in the fire.

 

Julio Jones

I already presented the possibility of trading Julio Jones in last week’s overreaction Tuesday piece. I will double down in this article. There are two main things to consider when evaluating a trade, the ROI (return on investment) and sunk cost. Julio would draw an astronomically high amount of draft capital. For argument’s sake, a team seriously interested would have to give up a first-round pick, two third-round picks, and an additional late-round draft pick. When traded, Brandin Cooks (2 separate first-rounders), Amari Cooper (first-rounder), Stefon Diggs (first, fourth, fifth, and sixth rounders), and Percy Harvin (first and third-rounders) all netted at least one first-round pick in return as elite or borderline elite players at their position. If he were traded, it would be one of the biggest blockbuster trades of all time.

The team would incur dead cap – by trading Jones – due to the guaranteed money negotiated in his contract. Jones, if traded at all, would have to be traded post-June 1st to mitigate the harsh dead cap hit. To show you the dramatic difference in trading him May 31st versus June 2nd, I used over the cap for the below figures.

For all other salary-cap figures in this article

If Jones were traded pre-June 1st, his dead cap numbers would be $32 million in 2020, $23 million in 2021, $15.5 million in 2022, and $7.75 million in 2023 for a total dead cap of approximately $79 million. The savings coupled with a pre-June 1st trade would be $12 million in 2020, $200,000 in 2021, $3.7 million in 2022, and $11.5 million in 2023 for a total savings of approximately $27 million.

If this were the case, I would recommend disregarding any trade offered and either restructure or extend his current contract for cap relief. But if Julio is traded post-June 1st, his dead cap numbers would be $9.2 million in 2020 and $7.75 million each year after until 2023 for a total dead cap of approximately $32 million. The cap savings tied to a post-June 1st trade would be $11.2 million in 2020, $15.3 million in 2021, and $11.5 million in the following two years for a total savings of approximately $49.5 million.

Trade Pre-June 1st (in millions) – dead cap: $79; cap savings: $27 

Trade Post-June 1st (in millions) – dead cap: $32; cap savings: $49.5 

Last year, the Falcons traded Mohamed Sanu away midseason, due in part to the commitment the organization had in their draft and develop ideology. It has proven to be successful thus far as Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage are prime to lead the receivers. If Thomas Dimitroff is to be the GM through the 2022 season, he must remain firm on his methods of operation and look to the next guy up, but he may have to wait until the offseason to do so in some cases due to the dead cap the player carries.