The Falcons could potentially end up with the 8th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, which would mark the third straight cycle with that selection. To say it’d be a disappointment to end up in the same place would be a massive understatement.
Atlanta managed to string together 14 wins since Arthur Smith took over but finally got out from underneath the mountain of dead money this past offseason and was able to add a tremendous amount of talent through free agency.
The roster improved dramatically this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. David Onyemata, Kaden Elliss, Calais Campbell, and Bud Dupree headline the free agent class; they’ve been instrumental in Ryan Nielsen’s unit turning it around.
However, the gem of the free agent class has been Jessie Bates III, who has been the Falcons’ best player of the 2023 campaign. In an otherwise wasted season, Bates has been one of the few bright spots.
He’s played like the best safety in football and could very well garner some Defensive Player of the Year consideration with another strong performance in the season finale against the Saints.
It won’t take much for him to make an All-Pro team, though. Bill Barnwell of ESPN already thinks Jessie Bates is a first-team member, but he was the only Falcons player to make Barnwell’s All-Pro teams.
Would the Falcons even be in the playoff race without Bates? In Week 1, he intercepted two passes and forced a fumble to set up 17 points in a 24-10 victory over the Panthers. His 92-yard pick-six of Derek Carr helped the Falcons capture a 24-15 win over the rival Saints. He added another pick on a deep shot in a 13-8 win over the Jets. In all, he has intercepted six passes and forced three fumbles this season. Despite playing most of the time in center field, Bates has more stuffs than any safety besides Houston’s Jalen Pitre.
Bates’ presence has helped flip the coverage success rates of both of his new team and his old one. When the Falcons didn’t get pressure last season, they ranked 27th in QBR allowed. That’s up to 10th this season. And while the Bengals — his former team — ranked 10th in QBR allowed without pressure a year ago, they’ve dropped to 29th without him. He might not single-handedly be responsible for those changes, but the Falcons are in a much better place with him in their lineup.
Barnwell is exactly correct. Would the Falcons still be in the postseason hunt without Jessie Bates? Probably not. The $64 million safety is solely responsible for several wins — Week 1 against the Panthers, the Jets, and the Saints.
To say the signing has been a success wouldn’t do it justice. The Falcons are a terribly inconsistent football team, but Bates has been the one constant. He’ll certainly be rewarded this offseason with All-Pro honors, the second of his career.
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Photographer: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire
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