The NFC South is universally regarded as the worst division in football, and the Falcons are considered betting favorites to win it, but several notable pundits don’t see it that way.
Seth Walder of ESPN, who is known for his disdain for the Falcons, believes Atlanta will fall flat on their face, finishing with fewer wins in 2024 than they ever did under Arthur Smith.
That would be a complete shock for Falcons fans. Raheem Morris, Kirk Cousins, and the improved defense should net at least as many wins this season as the Falcons had last year. However, even that would be a disappointment.
It is postseason or bust for Morris in his first season in Atlanta. That doesn’t happen a lot with first-year head coaches, but this isn’t a typical situation. The Falcons have a veteran quarterback with a veteran roster laced with talented young pieces; it is playoff or bust.
Walder’s coworker at ESPN, Bill Barnwell, is also not a believer in the Falcons. He doesn’t believe Atlanta will win the NFC South or capture a Wild Card berth, with the Saints taking the division over the Buccaneers and the rest of the NFC shaking out like this Cowboys, Lions, Packers, 49ers, Rams, and Bears.
“I’d argue the Bucs lost a little more this offseason. They’re replacing starters at every level of their defense in cornerback Carlton Davis, linebacker Devin White and defensive end Shaq Barrett, although White, a 2019 first-round pick and Super Bowl standout, had been benched by the end of the season,” Barnwell writes. “Both teams replaced offensive coordinators, but Tampa Bay’s wasn’t by choice, as Dave Canales was poached for the head-coaching job in Carolina. New OC Liam Coen has had success in the college ranks, but he was one-and-done as the coordinator in Los Angeles under Sean McVay.”
The Bucs are essentially running it back without any significant external additions, but their biggest loss isn’t Carlton Davis, Devin White or Shaq Barrett, as Barnwell notes; it’s Dave Canales.
The Panthers’ new head coach was the offensive coordinator in Seattle and Tampa Bay, helping revive the careers of Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith. I believe he’s the engine that made the Bucs offense run. What makes me scratch my head is Barnwell picking the Saints.
“The Saints, on the other hand, imported some much-needed fresh blood by replacing longtime Sean Payton assistant Pete Carmichael with former Vikings coordinator Klint Kubiak. It’s the first major change to the coaching staff the team has made since Payton’s departure after the 2021 season, and after Carmichael failed to get the most out of Derek Carr, it’s a shift that needed to be made,” Barnwell writes. “Quietly, the offense improved as the season went along, as New Orleans rose from 19th in EPA per play during the first half of 2023 to ninth best by the same metric afterward.”
The best thing the Saints did this offseason was getting rid of Pete Carmichael. Klint Kubiak is an upgrade but not by much. The defense and Dennis Allen coordinating it has never been the issue. It’s an elite unit; however, the offense has been abysmal since Drew Brees and Sean Payton left New Orleans.
I seriously doubt Kubiak is going to be able to coordinate a worthwhile unit behind a very shaky offensive line. Derek Carr is a fine quarterback under certain circumstances, but not a bad offensive line. I don’t see the Saints suddenly figuring it out in 2024 after not being able to last year.
The Bucs and Saints split last year’s season series with a Desmond Ridder-led Falcons team. There should be no way they do the same with Kirk Cousins and an improved defense.
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Photographer: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire
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