Though the Braves will once again be at the top of the league in payroll, they’re never gaudy spenders in free agency like the other clubs with high payrolls.
The Yankees, Dodgers, and Mets will fight over the blockbuster-esque free agents that will capture headlines, but Alex Anthopoulos is more concerned with value.
That doesn’t mean the Braves are frugal. Atlanta’s GM just spends his money as wisely as possible. Anthopoulos’ chief concern is the relationship between dollars and WAR; it’s a process that has generally worked out in his favor.
This offseason won’t be any different, and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN provided a couple of free agents MLB clubs should invest in this offseason and one to avoid.
Invest: Shane Bieber, RHP
Projected contract: 3 years, $54 million
The Braves need to bolster their rotation, and Bieber provides an interesting approach to doing so.
A few years ago, it seemed like he was destined to sign a lucrative deal in free agency. He threw 200 innings in 2022 with a 2.88 ERA, but he’s slipped since. In 2023, he posted a 3.80 ERA over 128 innings.
Then, last season, Bieber only made two starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery in mid-April. The expectation is that he’ll be back in a major league rotation in the summer, which leads most analysts to project a one-year contract with the expectation Bieber returns to the free agent market for a more lucrative, multi-year deal in 2026. That might not be all GM’s thinking, though.
“But in making calls for my free agent projections, I was advised that Bieber is likely to get a larger guarantee given the broad interest and upside. He is a potential No. 2 or No. 3 starter who is still in his 20s, with a history of durability and command, and even with the heightened interest will demand three years at most at under $20 million per year. This is what almost every team is looking for, with the floor being him returning as a version of his 2023 back-end starter self and the signing becoming a minor disappointment,” McDaniel writes.
Investing in a pitcher who has dealt with injuries might not be what Braves fans want to hear, but just hear me out. Alex Anthopoulos sees value. Bieber’s value right now is low, similar to Chris Sale’s situation last winter. This would be the right time to invest a little more than a one-year deal in a Shane Bieber-esque arm that could pay massive dividends in 2026 and 2027, more so than in 2025.
Avoid: Carlos Estevez, RHP
Projected contract: 3 years, $36 million
The Braves are going to have to bolster the bullpen, and they’ll probably have to acquire a couple of high-leverage arms to replace A.J. Minter and Joe Jimenez, but Estevez may be one to avoid, as McDaniel notes.
“If the aging slugger is first on the list of player types you don’t pay retail price for, the reliever coming off of a career year is next.”
Estevez burst onto the scene in 2023 when he finally left the Rockies, signing a two-year deal with the Angels in free agency. He earned All-Star honors for the first time in his career, and Los Angeles quickly capitalized on a wise investment after Estevez improved even more during the first half of the 2024 campaign, trading him to the Phillies.
Across last season with both clubs, the veteran hurler threw 55.0 innings with a 2.45 ERA and an impressive 0.909 WHIP. He’s hitting free agency at the right time and will certainly cash in, but that’s not Anthopoulos’ M.O.
The Braves have no problem paying a reliever $13-ish million per season; they’re doing so with three of them right now. However, each of Raisel Iglesias, Pierce Johnson, and Joe Jimenez were acquired via trade, with the latter two being extended after the deals and Iglesias struggling with the Angels before the Braves swooped in. Again, it’s all about value for Anthopoulos.
Invest: Spencer Turnbull, RHP
Projected contract: 2 years, $13 million
Turnbull is an intriguing free agent to invest in because he’s incredibly versatile. He shared time in the Phillies bullpen and rotation, while other Philly starting pitchers struggled with inconsistencies and injuries.
Across both roles last season, Â Turnbull finished with a record of 3-0 and a 2.65 ERA while giving up 16 earned runs in 54.1 innings pitched. He played in 17 games but only started seven. In his first six starts, he posted a 1.67 ERA, 3.26 FIP, and 3.22 xFIP across 32.1 innings of work.
The Braves have had plenty of injuries in their rotation, so why not kill two birds with one stone? That’s value. Turnbull has shown that he can be a reliable pitcher, either as a starter or reliever.
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Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire
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