The Falcons are hoping that Michael Penix will lead the team to their first postseason berth since 2017, marking the end of a six-year drought.
His debut as a starter against the lowly Giants was encouraging, but this weekend is a much taller task. The Falcons rookie will be playing in a standalone primetime game on the road against a Commanders team that needs a win to punch their own playoff ticket.
The Falcons will have to help Penix; he can’t do it alone. Thankfully, Drake London is trending in the right direction, and it looks like he will play on Sunday, but more than anything, Penix is going to need help when he’s off the field.
The Falcons defense has been underwhelming for much of the season. However, it’s been much better since the bye week, even leading the league in sacks over the last four weeks, a feat once thought to be impossible for Atlanta’s pass rush.
In three of the Falcons’ last four games, they’ve held the opponent to 17 points or less, but this Sunday presents a different challenge against the Commanders offense and Jayden Daniels. Aaron Schatz of ESPN isn’t yet convinced of Atlanta’s surging defense, noting that among playoff bubble teams, Atlanta’s concerning trend is their middling pass rush.
“The Falcons ranked 32nd in pass rush win rate in 2023. And although they passed on drafting a pass rusher with the eighth overall pick — taking starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. instead — the Falcons took defensive linemen in the second and fourth rounds (Ruke Orhorhoro and Brandon Dorlus, respectively), then traded for Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon (career best 15.5 sacks in 2022),” Schatz writes.
“Things haven’t improved much. The Falcons are 28th in pass rush win rate (33.8%) this season and have the fewest sacks in the NFL (26). Judon has only 4.5 sacks, while Kaden Elliss and Arnold Ebiketie lead the Falcons with five sacks each. The Falcons are also 31st in pressure rate. Blitzing hasn’t helped, as the Falcons have the worst defensive DVOA in the NFL when they send more than four pass rushers.
At this point, the Falcons can’t really add more pass rush. They have to hope the secondary can hold up without being helped by QB pressures — and rely on Penix and the offense to outscore opponents.”
The Falcons aren’t going to have an elite pass rush, and some of their recent success should be attributed to their opponents, but that facet has undoubtedly improved over the last month. Time will only tell if trends continue on Sunday Night Football.
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Photographer: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire
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