The Braves have been quiet this offseason, but earlier this week, Alex Anthopoulos woke up and made his first move of the winter, signing Jurickson Profar to a three-year, $42 million deal.
It’s a contract that many Braves fans are happy with, but Bradford Doolittle of ESPNÂ sees it as a middling signing, giving the acquisition a C grade.
“Not only had the Atlanta Braves seen their top National League rivals all make major moves this offseason — the Los Angeles Dodgers with Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki (among others), the New York Mets with Juan Soto (and others), the Philadelphia Phillies with Jesus Luzardo and Max Kepler — they had watched Max Fried and Charlie Morton leave as free agents. Fried went to the New York Yankees and Morton signed with the Baltimore Orioles. Even the Arizona Diamondbacks, who matched the Braves with 89 wins last season, signed a Cy Young contender in Corbin Burnes.
It was becoming a little more critical that the Braves do something to improve their roster, rather than simply rely on the offense to bounce back from a dismal 2024 season and Spencer Strider to return from Tommy John surgery at full force. So they’ve agreed to a deal with Jurickson Profar, who has to be viewed as one of the biggest wild cards among all free agents this offseason.”
I can understand the sentiment of comparing the Braves offseason to the Dodgers and Mets, but that’s not an objective way of grading them. Context is important. For instance, the Mets roster is still inferior to the Braves as they currently stand, but because New York made some big show this offseason, they’re getting all of this praise.
“In 2023, Profar was one of the worst regulars in the majors, producing minus-1.3 bWAR between 111 games with the Colorado Rockies and 14 with the San Diego Padres (FanGraphs actually ranked him last among all 656 position players in WAR at minus-1.6). A free agent at the end of that season, Profar went unsigned: He eventually returned to the Padres after spring training started on a deal with a $1 million base salary.
He then went out and had the best season of his career for San Diego, hitting .280/.380/.459, starting the All-Star Game and ranking seventh in the majors in on-base percentage. While he’s had good plate discipline and above-average contact rates, Profar’s batted-ball metrics jumped to levels he had never approached before. His hard-hit rate (balls above 95 mph) had never been higher than 34% and soared to 44.4% (putting him in the 71st percentile of all hitters); his average exit velocity increased from 86.5 mph to 91.1 mph (from the ninth percentile to the 80th).”
The Braves are clearly betting that Profar can replicate his breakout campaign, but Doolittle is skeptical, even though the metrics say his 2024 season was legit. Alex Anthopoulos is convinced that the adjustments that Jurickson Profar made at the plate are for real. We’ll find out in a few months.
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Photo: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
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