A month ago, the Falcons sat in firm control of the NFC South with a 6-3 record. Praise was pouring in for Kirk Cousins and Raheem Morris. A month later, the Buccaneers have a better chance of winning the division.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Tampa Bay has a 50.2% chance of winning the division and a 56.5% chance of a postseason berth, compared to 49.3% and 53.2% for the Falcons, respectively.
That’s as close to 50/50 as it gets, but those projections speak volumes, considering Atlanta holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay. The Falcons remaining strength of schedule is ranked 29th according to FPI, but the Bucs’ is even more favorable at 30th.
Everything is in the Falcons control, but they could see their narrow division lead vanish completely this weekend. Kirk Cousins will return to Minnesota to take on the Vikings, who have an incredibly balanced team led by Kevin O’Connell’s offense and Brian Flores’ defense.
Meanwhile, the Bucs will host the reeling Raiders. While Las Vegas has some pieces, there’s no confusing a true contender in the Vikings with a Raiders club that could be looking for a new head coach again this offseason.
If the Falcons fall to the Vikings and the Bucs handle the Raiders, the Falcons will no longer control their own destiny and be at the mercy of the three-time defending NFC South champions.
There’s a lot on the line for Cousins, Morris, and the entire Falcons organization this weekend. We will be keeping a close eye on the contests in Minnesota and Tampa Bay.
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Photographer: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire
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