Does the Falcons front office have enough money to sign another free agent?

Contrary to what the national media would have you believe, the Falcons have actually efficiently spent their cash in free agency this offseason. They haven’t made any franchise-altering signings, but good teams typically build through the draft — not free agency. Alex had some great insight into building through the draft, and this tweet gives you a look into what I’m talking about:

2020 TB $75M (14th)
2019 KC $83M (13th)
2018 NE $42M (23rd)
2017 PHI $51M (21st)
2016 NE $40M (22nd)
2015 DEN $34M (26th)
2014 NE $68M (15th)
2013 SEA $26M (25th)
2012 BAL $100M (10th)
2011 NYG $62M (18th)

— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) March 18, 2021

So far, the Falcons have acquired the following players:

RB Mike Davis

WR/RB/KR Cordarrelle Patterson

TE Lee Smith

TE Ryan Becker

IOL Josh Andrews

IDL Jonathan Bullard

EDGE Barkevious Mingo

LB Brandon Copeland

S Erik Harris

CB Fabian Moreau

S Duron Harmon

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The most lucrative deal Terry Fontenot handed out was to Mike Davis, who will earn $5.5 million over two years. Cordarrelle Patterson will carry the largest cap hit at $3 million for the 2021 season, pending Duron Harmon’s contract figures. So where does that put Atlanta?

I believe Grady Jarrett’s restructure is inevitable, which should give Fontenot more breathing room. According to OverTheCap, the Falcons would be about $335k under the salary cap after the Patterson signing without accounting for Harmon’s contract. If Jarrett is to be restructured, how much money do the Falcons have before signing their draft class, and would it be enough to sign another free agent? All estimations are via OverTheCap.

 

Falcons Current Salary Table & Top 51:

With the way the top 51 system works, teams only have to account for their top 51 players until the first week of the NFL season kicks off when calculating the salary cap. Right now, the Falcons have $183.5 million in cap liabilities and $166.9 million in spending on their top 51 before accounting for the Patterson and Harmon signings. Let’s assume that Harmon is making $4 million on a one-year pact. Without using the top 51 standard, that puts Atlanta at about $8 million over the $182.5 league cap — Harmon ($4 million) and Patterson ($3 million) in addition to the $183.5 in total cap liabilities.

 

Grady Jarrett Restructure:

If the Falcons choose to max restructure Grady Jarrett, that would open up $6.255 million in cap space for Atlanta and would put them roughly $1.75 million over the cap. Signing the two, Harmon and Patterson, will result in two $660K contracts coming off the books, subtracting $1.32 million from the top 51 figure. But for now, the Falcons don’t have to worry about complying with the salary cap outside of the top 51.

 

Draft Class:

According to OvertheCap, the Falcons will need about $8.096 million for their rookie pool. However, there are rules in place to help teams out. The rookies will replace an estimated $4.75 million in cap space, so the required cap space to sign the draft class will be about $3.34 million before any trades. That means the Falcons could still be over the cap after the draft but under the top 51 requirement. With 57 contracted players right now, there will surely be cuts made.

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So, it’s unlikely that the Falcons can afford to bring in any more free agents. In an ideal world, I’d like to snag a guy like Jurrell Casey or Geno Atkins, but as of now, it seems like the Falcons are done. They could still pull off a trade or cut some players, but I doubt that would happen until later in the offseason. Who knows, Terry Fontenot has surprised me before, so perhaps Atlanta could still get a valuable veteran on another cheap one-year contract.