The Braves enter the final week of the season needing to play near perfect baseball to clinch a spot in the postseason for the seventh consecutive season, and it begins with a showdown at Truist Park against the Mets, who currently sit 2.0 games ahead of the Braves for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
As you might have heard by now, the Braves made the intriguing decision not to bump Chris Sale ahead of Spencer Schwellenbach in the rotation. With the off-day, Sale would be on full rest tomorrow and full rest again if needed for the season finale against Kansas City. Instead, he’ll likely line up to start Game 1 of a potential Wild Card series, but the Braves have to get there first.
Tuesday: Spencer Schwellenbach vs. Luis Severino
In Game 1, the Braves will turn to the rookie Spencer Schwellenbach, who has pitched like anything but a rookie this year. He’s been the Braves second-best pitcher since the All-Star break, boasting a 2.77 ERA and 3.04 FIP dating back to July 6th. Schwellenbach and Sale seem to stop the bleeding every time the Braves need them, and Brian Snitker’s club desperately needs him tonight.
On the other side, Luis Severino is on the verge of completing his first fully healthy season since 2018. He’s set to make his 31st start of the 2024 campaign, owning an 11-6 record with a 3.79 ERA. However, he’s been a little up and down over his last 10 outings, recording a 4.24 ERA and 4.27 FIP. The Braves bats finished last week strong and should have some opportunities against Severino to keep building on that momentum.
Wednesday: Chris Sale vs. David Peterson
This is a battle of each team’s ace, which admittedly feels a little odd to say about David Peterson. Chris Sale has been the best pitcher in baseball from start to finish. He’s one more good start away from leading all of Major League Baseball in ERA, strikeouts, and wins. The last category being the most important on Wednesday. Peterson’s been terrific for the Mets too, owning a 9-3 record with a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts. But his 3.76 FIP suggests he’s been the beneficiary of some luck, and he boasts an unsightly 5.33 ERA over his career against the Braves in 50.2 innings.
Thursday: Max Fried vs. Sean Manaea
Another fantastic matchup, Manaea has been absolutely lights out in his first year with the Mets, owning a 12-5 record with a 3.29 ERA. He’s also pitched some of his best baseball of the season to end the year, posting a 2.70 ERA over his last 12 starts. Max Fried’s also put together another really solid campaign for the Braves, but he’s been a little more erratic than usual since coming off the IL after feeling some forearm discomfort, recording a 4.06 ERA in his last 10 starts. However, his 3.17 FIP over that stretch suggests some of that is due to some pretty poor luck. Regardless, the Braves will need Fried to be at his best on Thursday in what very well could be his last start with a tomahawk across his chest.
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Photo: Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire
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