Seemingly every year, the Braves produce a talent that comes out of nowhere to make an impact at the major league level.
Last year, it was Spencer Schwellenbach, who established himself as a mainstay in Atlanta’s rotation. Before him, it was Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider, who finished first and second in the Rookie of the Year race.
Who will it be in 2025? Keith Law believes two Braves rookies will be among the 50 most impactful this upcoming season — A.J. Smith-Shawver and Drake Baldwin.
“I do think Smith-Shawver will get an opportunity to make enough starts this year to 1) have an impact and 2) lose his prospect eligibility, which at this point would only require 16 innings or about two weeks on the active roster. I don’t know how impactful he’ll be, as he doesn’t have an average breaking ball yet and he walked too many in Triple A last year (11 percent) to see him as more than a fifth starter right now. He could be more valuable in the short term in long relief, since he’s built up as a starter and has a good enough changeup to face left-handed batters.”
Smith-Shawver rocketed through the Braves farm system in 2023, going all the way from High-A to the major league level. While his work in the lower minors was impressive, that wasn’t the case in Triple-A and Atlanta. Last year, it was pretty much the same.
However, it’s important to remember two things in these conversations — opportunity and development. The Braves rotation is sure to have opportunities for AJSS, and as I always say, development is never linear. Smith-Shawver will have the chance to prove himself, but he’ll have to find some consistency if he’s to last in Atlanta.
“Baldwin is ready to be an everyday catcher in the majors. If he had a job waiting, he’d be in the top five on this list, but he’s blocked for now by Sean Murphy, who was one of the best catchers in baseball in 2023 but was out with an oblique strain for nearly half of 2024 and didn’t hit in the other half, although the injury could easily explain the drastic falloff in his production. If he gets hurt again, it’s an easy call to give Baldwin the playing time. What will Atlanta do if Murphy’s healthy but doesn’t go back to his previous level of offense? No, really, I’m asking, because I don’t know — Murphy’s signed through 2028, so the team isn’t going to be eager to supplant or flat-out bench him even if he’s not hitting.”
While opportunities will be robust for Smith-Shawver, whether it’s out of Spring Training or not, that isn’t the case for Drake Baldwin. The Braves invested considerable resources in Sean Murphy, so there’s virtually no scenario, outside of injury, where Baldwin will supplant him as a starter early in the season.
Even if Murphy struggles, the Braves will give him plenty of a runway to figure it out. There are a few scenarios in which Baldwin will contribute, though. He could always split time with Murphy behind the dish and will also likely be the first call if an injury occurs to Murphy or Marcell Ozuna.
Drake Baldwin’s bat is major league ready. If he forces Alex Anthopoulos’ hand, it will be a good problem to have.
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Zac BonDurant/Icon Sportswire
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