The Max Fried saga will quickly pick up steam following the conclusion of the World Series in a couple of weeks. The Braves, while not the favorites to re-sign him, will certainly be involved in the conversation. They want him back, but Alex Anthopoulos has a track record of letting stars walk out the door when the bidding gets past his comfort level.
Assuming that happens again, the Braves will have to replace Fried in some form or fashion. How big they want to go becomes the question. Anthopoulos certainly doesn’t have to land one of the top guys. With Spencer Strider scheduled to return early next year, the Braves have a good enough rotation to win without even touching it. However, given how injuries have ravaged Atlanta’s pitching staff right before the postseason three straight years, no organization is more familiar with the term “you can never have enough pitching” than the Atlanta Braves.
One marquee name to keep an eye on is Blake Snell. This time last year, he entered free agency in a very similar situation as Max Fried — 30-years-old, coming off one of the best seasons of his career, and hoping to land a long-term deal. Snell probably would have gotten one too if Scott Boras hadn’t overplayed his hand, which led to Snell settling for a one-year, $32 million contract with the Giants. The deal includes a $38.5 million player option for next year, but the expectation is Snell opts out in search of more security.
The entire Blake Snell situation is peculiar, which makes his next contract difficult to project. He should have been able to sign a six or seven-year deal last winter. But because he waited the entire offseason to sign, his start to 2024 was horrendous. Through his first six starts, he recorded a 9.51 ERA and opponents boasted an .895 OPS against him. He then went on the IL for about a month, only for him to return and pitch some of the best baseball of his entire career, going 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 1.77 FIP over his final 14 starts in the second half.
That’s why most expect Snell to opt out of his contract with the Giants as he searches for something bigger. He should have no problem landing a lucrative multi-year deal, but that was the industry expectation last year as well when he was coming off his second NL Cy Young award. His injury history clearly played a role in that, and I’m not sure half of a season of elite pitching is going to change the way clubs think about him. He’ll land a multi-year deal, but a six or seven-year deal like the one Max Fried is in line for feels unlikely, which is why Jim Bowden projects Snell to sign a three-year, $105 million contract this winter.
8. Blake Snell, LHP
Age: 31
HT: 6-4 WT: 225
2024 (Giants): 2.1 WAR
Career: 23.4 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $32 millionSnell was looking for a long-term contract last offseason, but most executives were concerned about his track record, which includes making 30 or more starts only twice in a nine-year career and never pitching more than 180 2/3 innings in a season. However, in the two years he did make 30 starts (2018, 2023), he won a Cy Young Award both times.
This year he dealt with injuries early but performed well after returning in July; he finished with a 3.12 ERA and 2.43 FIP over 20 starts. Snell will pitch at age 32 next year and I think his lack of durability — he’s pitched more than 130 innings in a season only once since 2018 — will again prevent him from getting a long-term contract. However, after opting out of his $30 million player option, he’ll be able to sign a better deal.
Best team fits: Yankees, Orioles, Mets, Braves, Giants
Salary comps: Aaron Nola (7 years, $172M); Carlos Rodón (6 years, $162M); Patrick Corbin (6 years, $140M); Tyler Glasnow (5 years, $136.5M); José BerrÃos (7 years, $131M); Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M)
Ironically, Bowden includes the Braves as one of the best fits for Blake Snell, and it’s an idea that I’m warming up to if his market is once again cooler than anticipated this offseason.
Both Max Fried and Blake Snell have had their fair share of injury concerns. It hasn’t been major issues, but they seem to spend a stint or two on the IL every year. That could be seen as a big problem when handing out a six-year contract, but if you cut that number in half, like you might be able to do for Blake Snell, it could be worth the gamble.
Snell also has far more upside than Max Fried, and that’s not even debatable. He’s a two-time Cy Young award recipient that has the most strikeouts per nine innings in MLB history. Right behind him? Chris Sale. The simple thought of having Snell, Sale, and Strider at the top of the rotation would be a nightmare for opposing teams come October, and that doesn’t even include Spencer Schwellenbach and Reynaldo Lopez, who are two All-Star caliber talents as well.
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Photographer: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire
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