Much like it was during the 2021 and 2022 offseasons, the Braves’ winter is going to be focused on one of the faces of the franchise — Max Fried.
Following Atlanta’s World Series in 2021, Freddie Freeman left in free agency. Then, in 2022, Dansby Swanson followed suit. Now, Braves Country is bracing for the loss of another fan favorite.
The overwhelming expectation is that Alex Anthopoulos will let Fried walk in free agency. That’s not to say the Braves won’t offer a fair contract to Fried, but they certainly won’t get into a bidding war and will undoubtedly not pay sticker price, evident in the negotations with Freeman and Swanson’s representation.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but AA was clearly right in letting one walk but not so much the other. Nobody in Braves Country thinks Atlanta should’ve given into Swanson’s requests, even with Orlando Arcia’s struggles. That isn’t the case with Freeman.
It’s hard to tell where Max Fried will end up compared to Swanson and Freeman, in terms of regrets. However, if Spotrac’s contract projections are correct, Anthopoulos would serious have to consider a deal.Â
Spotrac projects Fried’s contract to be in the ballpark of $136 million over six years, averaging out just under $23 million per season. It would make him the 14th highest-paid starter in baseball.
Spotrac got to that number by finding starters with similar numbers as Max Fried’s stats from the prior two seasons and compared their contracts. The metrics were games started per year, innings pitched, K/9, BB/9, ERA, WHIP, FIP, GP%, and WAR.
The four pitchers were Kevin Gausman (2020-2021), Carlos Rodon (2021-2022), Aaron Nola (2022-2023, and Sonny Gray (2022-2023). Those four starters averaged 27 games started, 5.69 innings pitched per game, 10.57 K/9, 2.33 BB/9, 3.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2.98 FIP, 18.67 GP%, and 5.13 WAR in their two seasons prior to entering free agency.
Max Fried, on the other hand, posted 21 games started, 5.86 IP, 8.92 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 2.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 13.31 GP%, and 4.79 WAR. So, using these numbers in this manner is an accurate ballpark.
If that’s the case, I’d be pretty disappointed if the Braves didn’t make a run at Fried. But that’s just the thing. I find it unlikely that Fried signs for $136 million. He’s been better for longer than Nola and Rodon, who each received more than Fried’s projection.
The Braves will likely not be in the conversation because I believe Max Fried will garner well north of $150 million in total value, sniffing and potentially even eclipsing $200 million in total.
A lot of organizations with deeper pockets will be in the running for Max Fried. The Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, and every other club with money available will be in contact with Fried’s agent. That will inevitably drive the price up.
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