Braves: How does FanGraphs project Chris Sale in 2024?

The biggest acquisition of this offseason to this point has been seven-time All-Star Chris Sale, which was followed by a subsequent extension.

At this point, it appears to be a polarizing move among fans. Some are thrilled about the idea of a talent like Sale already joining a stout rotation. Others are wary of his injury history, which is understandable given how many injuries the Braves pitching staff has suffered in recent years.

I’ve given my thoughts on the acquisition at length over the last week, but how does FanGraphs feel Chris Sale will perform in 2024?

Chris Sale FanGraphs 2024 Projections

 

26 starts, 141.0 innings, 3.74 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 10.38 K/9, 2.62 BB/9, 2.8 fWAR

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For a guy that the Braves are paying zero dollars for next season, this would be some pretty fantastic production, and it’s very similar to what Charlie Morton has given the Braves over the last three years. FanGraphs’ projections for Sale are slightly better than how he performed last year for the Red Sox, but with a full and healthy offseason this year, I think that should be the bare minimum expectation. As I wrote in a recent article, when healthy, Chris Sale is still one of the best pitchers in the game. 

Chris Sale has to be up there with the best pitchers to never win a Cy Young. From 2012-2018, he was among the elite arms in the game and his consistency is that of a future Hall-of-Famer. Sale never finished outside the top six of the AL Cy Young race, leading the league in strikeouts twice and K/9 three times.

For his career, Sale averages 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. That’s not just good; that’s the best in MLB history. But what’s so remarkable is he’s able to punch opponents out at will without giving up any free passes — 2.1 BB/9 for his career.

Of course, Sale hasn’t been nearly as effective since 2018 in the run prevention department. But even in his 31 starts since 2021, he’s averaged 10.8 strikeouts per nine with 2.5 walks per nine.

Acquiring pitchers is a risky business. Everybody is looking for great ones, creating outrageous bidding wars, whether it is in free agency or the trade market. The acquisition of Chris Sale is a lot less risky than most of the other routes the Braves could have taken. Injuries are always a threat when talking about arms; at least in this deal, the Braves didn’t have to give up several prospects, and they didn’t have to hand out a lucrative contract.

Chris Sale will be one of the best bargains in baseball over the next few years if he can stay healthy.

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Photographer: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire