Just like the last couple of offseasons, Alex Anthopoulos will be mulling over what to do at shortstop. Two years ago, he decided to let Dansby Swanson walk, who was coming off a career year and signed a $177 million contract with the Cubs.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but that deal looked like an overpay then and certainly does now. Swanson never demonstrated the kind of consistency to warrant nearly $200 million. The Braves were wise to move on, and the decision to replace him with Orlando Arcia looked genius for about half-a-year. While making less than 10% of Swanson’s annual salary, Arcia went on to have a career-year, making his first All-Star Game.
However, the second half of that season left a lot to be desired, and his 2024 campaign looked a lot more like what Arcia has been his entire career. A player with a decent glove and a well below average bat that is best served as a backup infielder. The Braves need to upgrade this offseason, but there aren’t many options to turn to in free agency.
The one that every club with a need at shortstop will be eyeing is Willy Adames. The 29-year-old is coming off one of his best seasons with the Brewers, smashing a career-high 32 homers with a .794 OPS, helping Milwaukee to the NL Central crown.
But that kind of production won’t come cheap. Adames will have no shortage of suitors and could be looking for a deal even greater than the one Swanson got a couple of years ago. Those aren’t typically the kind of bidding wars Alex Anthopoulos gets involved in and wins, but Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller predicts that will change this offseason. He has the Braves swinging big to fix the most glaring hole in the lineup.
Orlando Arcia was initially a godsend in the aftermath of not re-signing Dansby Swanson. He missed a few weeks early in the 2023 campaign with a microfracture in his wrist, but he hit .341 through his first 54 games played, ultimately landing on the All-Star roster. But he had a .652 OPS the rest of the way before a .625 OPS this year, struggling to produce while playing in 244 of a possible 249 games.
Atlanta will very happily keep Arcia around as a versatile backup for two more years at a combined cost of $4M, but they’re going to be at the top of the list of teams bidding for Willy Adames’ services.
The Dodgers also figure to be in the mix for Adames. Possibly the Blue Jays, too, if they’re preemptively preparing for Bo Bichette to walk a year from now. But we’ll take Atlanta for what will be one of the bigger non-Soto contracts in this year’s free agency cycle.
Alex Anthopoulos has already said the Braves payroll is expected to increase this offseason, but by enough to sign Willy Adames for around $150-200 million? That feels unlikely for several reasons, primarily because the most recent monster contracts for shortstops have not panned out in the club’s favor.
Let’ go back a couple of years to when Dansby Swanson was a free agent alongside Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts. Swanson received $177 million and has not lived up to the deal. Bogaerts got $280 million and has been miserable for the Padres. Turner has been the best of the bunch, but certainly not worth the $300 million he signed for in Philadelphia, and Carlos Correa has also dealt with injuries and inconsistencies.
I’m not sure any of these clubs would do these deals over again, and I would argue all four of those players entered free agency in a better light than Willy Adames. That’s not to say Adames’ best years are not ahead of him, but I highly doubt the Braves will pay to find out.
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Photographer: Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire
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