The current construct of the Braves starting rotation is quite unappealing. The top three is promising, featuring 2024 NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale at the top, along with Reynaldo Lopez and rising star Spencer Schwellenbach. But despite the upside, even those guys come with some concerns.
Sale, while healthy for the majority of last season, has a lengthy injury history. Reynaldo Lopez had two separate IL stints due to fatigue after making the transition to the rotation for the first time in a half-decade, and Spencer Schwellenbach has not thrown a full year’s worth of innings since he was drafted. Projecting them all to be healthy and as effective as they were this year is wishful thinking, but the more glaring issue is what’s behind them.
The Braves could have an open competition between guys like AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, and Ian Anderson for one of the final spots in the rotation. It’s reasonable to believe one of those arms can find success in 2025, but relying on two of them could prove disastrous. The Braves have to add at least one proven starting pitcher this offseason, which is what Joel Reuter has them doing in his prediction for Atlanta’s Opening Day rotation.
The fit on paper makes a ton of sense. The Braves probably don’t have the funds to make a competitive offer to Max Fried. They also don’t like handing out 6+ year contracts to pitchers, particularly ones with an injury history like Fried. Replacing him with a durable veteran that has pitched marvelously in the postseason and will likely only command a 2-3 year contract is a very Braves move.
With that being said, the market for free agent starting pitchers is insane. If Luis Severino is commanding three years and $67 million, a guy like Eovaldi could be looking at three years for $80-90 million. I don’t see the Braves going that high.
It may not be what fans want to hear, but I find it much more likely the Braves just bring back Charlie Morton on a one-year, $20 million contract. They also likely explore the trade market for answers.
As far as the fifth starter spot, Reuter has that going to Grant Holmes, which I actually like. In his first season in the majors, he recorded a 3.56 ERA over 68.1 innings, pitching in a number of different roles for the Braves. If Atlanta has an open competition for the final spot in the rotation, he’s probably the favorite to win it.
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Photo: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire
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