The Falcons have an important offseason ahead of them. The overwhelming expectation is for the club to make a serious run at a quarterback and maybe even multiple.
The draft would be the preferred avenue for most fans, I’d guess. A franchise quarterback on a rookie deal is easily the most valuable thing in the NFL. Unfortunately, the top three prospects seem primed to go in the first three picks.
That would leave the Falcons picking from the next tier of quarterbacks — J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix, and Bo Nix. The reigning national champion from Michigan is in a tier of his own in my eyes, though.
He’s not in the realm of Drake Maye or Caleb Williams, but McCarthy is closer to Jayden Daniels than Penix is to McCarthy. Moreover, he might be the most realistic fit for Zac Robinson’s scheme and who will be available at the Falcons 8th pick, which is why Bleacher Report believes he’s the best fit.
The Atlanta Falcons probably aren’t the first team to come to mind, particularly since they have this year’s eighth overall pick.
Some may see that slot as too rich for McCarthy’s services. Maybe it is. But Atlanta could also be tempted to pull the trigger on a young, talented athlete with a big arm but limited resume due to playing in a run-heavy scheme.
Over the last two seasons, McCarthy threw 654 total passes. For comparison, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. attempted at least 554 passes in each of those two seasons. Yet the correlation between opportunities and understanding isn’t what a team should expect.
“NFL evaluators have described McCarthy’s processing as ‘elite’ in my conversations with them,” NFL Network’s Lance Zierlein wrote.
That’s the precursor to why the Falcons need to seriously consider McCarthy. Additionally, Zac Robinson left the confines of Sean McVay’s system with the Los Angeles Rams to take over play-calling duties in Atlanta this offseason.
As The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue and Ted Nguyen noted, McVay’s scheme used presnap motion among the highest percentage of any offense this season. Presnap motion is an identifier for the quarterback to provide a better understanding of the defense’s approach. With McCarthy’s ability to discern information, that would provide a significant advantage.
The variations found in the scheme despite similar looks are meant to confuse defenses and simplify the offense, particularly the run game. That ultimately feeds into the play-action passing attack.
“[McCarthy is] at his best when he’s throwing routes coming into his vision across the middle, throws that he can lead into space,” Klassen wrote in his scouting report for McCarthy. “Slants, glance routes, digs and intermediate crossers make up a majority of McCarthy’s best throws on film. He also has the toughness and patience required to hang in the pocket on those play-action throws.”
When running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London, tight end Kyle Pitts and a good offensive line are thrown into the mix, McCarthy might be the perfect pilot for that offense.
Here is how Bleacher Report thought the rest of the draft fits worked out:
Drake Maye — Bears
Caleb Williams — Commanders
Jayden Daniels — Raiders
Michael Penix — Titans
Bo Nix — Broncos
I actually couldn’t agree more with BR’s reasoning. First of all, I find it highly unlikely Williams, Maye, or Daniels is available. Secondly, the schematic fit makes much more sense compared to a guy like Justin Fields.
The former Ohio State product is as dynamic of a player at the position as the NFL has to offer. However, he’s never consistently shown any of the attributes of a quarterback who runs the Shanahan-McVay offense.
Robinson’s offense, if similar to his former head coach, would require signal callers to play with accuracy and most of all anticipation. It’s not to say Fields can’t do it because the guy is a super athlete. He just hasn’t shown it consistently yet.
If the Falcons believe both are equally capable, drafting McCarthy with the 8th overall pick or trading a second-rounder for Fields wouldn’t even be a question. The answer would be a resounding “McCarthy” for the Falcons.
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