At what price point should the Braves let Freddie Freeman walk?

I know Braves fans don’t want to talk about it, but there is a chance Freddie Freeman walks this offseason. I don’t think it’s a very large one. Like Chipper Jones, I believe there’s about a 10-20% chance Freeman leaves, and I do think the Braves end up offering him a very large five or six-year contract. However, there’s a possibility that might not be enough.

Unrestricted free agency, especially for star players that are coming off the two best years of their career in their early 30s, can be wildly unpredictable. Some offseasons, teams shy away from the mega-contracts, but there could be organizations that look at what Freeman has provided the Braves over his career and find it invaluable, leading to a massive overpay in hopes that the first few years of his contract lead to a World Series.

I don’t love talking about it; in fact, I hate it, but there is a price point in which Alex Anthopoulos will have no choice but to walk away from the negotiation table. The question is, what is that number?

I actually think the Braves are in for a rude awakening when it comes to negotiating with Freeman this offseason. A lot of national media outlets have referenced Paul Goldschmidt‘s five-year, $130 million contract as a good comparison for what Freeman might receive.

In a way, I understand their reasoning. They are both 32-year-old first baseman coming off multiple fantastic seasons, but the comparisons end there. Freeman is coming off seasons in which he won an MVP and a World Series. Not to mention… Goldschmidt didn’t even test unrestricted free agency, which is the most important aspect of this conversation. Had he allowed himself to be courted by every team in the majors, it’s likely he would have inked a much more lucrative deal.

So, unless Freeman is willing to give the Braves a hometown discount, I think six years on his next contract is a given. I also believe his AAV will be substantially higher than Goldschmidt’s — six years, $185 million in total. With that being said, I could still see the Braves signing the dotted line at that point.

Where I can’t see them moving forward is if it goes any further. I doubt Freeman will see a much higher AAV than what I’ve proposed, but if a team out there in a major market offers him a seventh year, that could be the icing on the cake that helps him move on from the organization that drafted him, and I don’t believe the Braves would — or should — match.