A look at Falcons’ rookie head coaches: How well did Dan Quinn and Mike Smith do in their first years in Atlanta?

Expectations for Arthur Smith in his first year as head coach for the Atlanta Falcons are scattered. Obviously, the fanbase belief is that Matt Ryan will be enough for Smith to get Atlanta back to the playoffs. The national media believes in a slightly less optimistic narrative after Terry Fontenot traded away Julio Jones. If we look at the history of Falcons’ first-year head coaches, we can better understand reasonable expectations for the Arthur Smith era.

Dan Quinn, the Falcons head coach from 2015 until six weeks into the 2020 season, led the franchise to a Super Bowl and one other playoff birth. Many believed he’d be the reason the defense would be enough to support Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and the Falcons high-powered offense, which obviously never came to fruition.

Still, in his first season as Atlanta’s head coach, Quinn led the team to an 8-8 record after the previous year resulted in a 6-10 record. Though he didn’t make the playoffs, there was palpable excitement for the team going forward. Warranted too because in just his second season as head coach, Quinn led the Falcons to the Super Bowl.

Before Quinn, the Falcons had a more impressive rookie season from a first-year head coach — Mike Smith. In 2008 with a rookie Matt Ryan, Smith led the Falcons to an 11-5 finish and a Wild Card birth after finishing the season prior with a 4-12 record. Though the situations within the organization and the division during the 2008 and 2015 seasons were different than they are now, there is one singular constant — Matty Ice.

I think fans should temper their expectations for the Falcons this season based on Atlanta’s average personnel and competition within the division. With that being said, the easiest way to turn around a franchise is with quality quarterback play, which the Falcons possess. Arthur Smith’s systems will be much better off being run by Ryan than any other rookie quarterback this year, and he gives the team the best chance at reaching the playoffs. Realistically, I see the Falcons finishing somewhere between 6-11 and 8-9, but Smith will surely improve the record from 2020.