If you ask the experts over at ESPN, the Hawks shouldn’t even bother showing up to Madison Square Garden on Saturday night for the opening game of their first-round matchup against the Knicks. All 12 of them picked New York, with only two projecting the series to go beyond six games.
On paper, they’re probably right. The Hawks don’t have many household names, and just a couple of months ago, they looked well on their way to another play-in tournament berth — a place that had become quite familiar over the last few seasons.
Then came the trade of Trae Young, a move that brought back a sparse return: an unwanted, aging CJ McCollum and backup sharpshooter Corey Kispert. Not exactly what most teams expect when dealing a four-time All-Star in the middle of his prime, especially one who led the league in assists as recently as last season. But Young’s smaller stature, combined with his inability to get the Hawks back into the playoff picture for three consecutive seasons, cooled his market considerably.
The trade felt like Atlanta was waving the white flag on the season. Instead, it’s catapulted them out of the play-in tournament for the first time since their magical Eastern Conference Finals run in 2020–21 — a run that began with a first-round matchup against these same New York Knicks.
How the Hawks Can Repeat History in New York
Since the departure of Trae Young, the Hawks have been one of the best teams in basketball on both ends of the floor, compiling a 20–6 record since the All-Star break, including a stretch where they won 18 of 20 games.
Jalen Johnson has blossomed into one of the league’s rising young stars and has a chance to follow in Young’s footsteps in several ways. At Madison Square Garden, Young became the most hated man in New York — and still is to this day. But if Johnson puts an early end to a Knicks playoff run — one their fans believe could end in a championship — he could quickly take over poll position.
Johnson’s efficient scoring ability, combined with his playmaking for a player of his size, is something that can only be topped by Nikola Jokic. He’s a triple-double machine, and Atlanta has managed to surround him with enough talent to make the Hawks a problem for anyone in the Eastern Conference.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is the frontrunner for the Most Improved Player award, averaging nearly 21 points while shooting 40% from beyond the arc. The last time these two teams met, he knocked down 7 of 11 threes and finished with a game-high 36 points. This is no longer a Sixth Man of the Year candidate averaging fewer than 10 points per game — if the game is on the line, he could very well be the guy the Hawks turn to.
Or it could be CJ McCollum, whose presence in the lineup since the Trae Young trade has been a breath of fresh air. He may not be the exact same player he was at his peak — when he was playing Robin to Damian Lillard’s Batman in Portland — but he’s not far off. His microwave scoring ability could ultimately swing the series in Atlanta’s favor. But more importantly, his veteran presence among a group of younger players who haven’t experienced moments like this could prove invaluable in an environment like Madison Square Garden.
However, the most vital player in this series for the Hawks might actually be the one least likely to impact the game offensively: Dyson Daniels — the best perimeter defender in the NBA and the player tasked with guarding Jalen Brunson.
Brunson isn’t going to go quietly. He’s proven to be a consistent 25–30 point scorer since arriving in New York, facing elite defenders on a nightly basis. He’ll get his, but the Hawks have the personnel to make things difficult. Between Daniels, Alexander-Walker, Jonathan Kuminga, and even Jalen Johnson, Atlanta is among the teams most well equipped to deal with a scorer of Brunson’s stature, capable of throwing a slew of bodies at the Knicks’ star guard.
The Hawks are young, inexperienced, and lacking established playoff superstars. Ultimately, that could be what dooms them in New York. But it’s also what makes them dangerous. This is a team peaking at the right time, featuring six or seven players capable of going for 20+ on any given night.
And on top of all of that, they’re playing with nothing to lose.
The last time that happened, Trae Young took a curtain call at Madison Square Garden.
How the Knicks Could Spell Trouble For The Hawks
When these two teams met on April 6th, it was one of the best games of the season — a back-and-forth affair that came down to the final tenth of a second, with time expiring just before CJ McCollum’s game-tying shot from beyond half court left his hand.
During the final five minutes of that game, the NBC broadcasters didn’t hesitate to remind everyone that the Knicks have a closer in Jalen Brunson, while the Hawks do not. On that particular night, they were right. Brunson took over in the fourth quarter, and despite Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s outstanding performance, Atlanta lacked offensive cohesion in the final possessions, which ultimately cost them the win.
There’s no question that’s a real storyline heading into a series expected to feature plenty of tight games. The Knicks know exactly where they’re going at the end of games. The Hawks, on the other hand, may not know until the moment arrives.
However, calling that the biggest issue Atlanta will face beginning Saturday would be greatly underestimating the problems the Knicks can create in the frontcourt.
Karl-Anthony Towns — while often criticized for his inconsistency in the postseason — has had his way against the Hawks this season, averaging 28.5 points and 13.5 rebounds in the two matchups he’s played. The Knicks are a good team even when Towns isn’t performing at his peak. But when he is, as he has been against Atlanta, they become almost unbeatable.
The frontcourt issues don’t end with Towns. Mitchell Robinson also presents a massive challenge for an undersized Hawks team that will be without its backup center, Jock Landale. The last time these teams met, Robinson posted eight points and 12 rebounds in under 20 minutes of action. He was the X-Factor, and he very well could be again in the first-round of the playoffs.
Without Landale, containing those two becomes that much more difficult over 48 minutes. Hawks head coach Quin Snyder — who should be in the Coach of the Year conversation for the job he’s done this season — must work up some magic to counter New York’s size. Otherwise, the experts over at ESPN could end up being right, with this series wrapping up in six games or fewer.
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Photo: Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire
